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What If? – A Look at How Partial Ruptures and Stress Transfer Can Be Incorporated Into Time-dependent PSHA

Description: 

In a time-independent PSHA model, a rupture has no impact on other ruptures so the subsequent hazard would remain unchanged. However, in a time-dependent PSHA framework, the hazard should change, but how it should change is an unresolved question. Traditionally, in a time-dependent approach, when an earthquake occurs, the clock resets. But what if only part of the fault ruptures? How should the hazard change on other sections of the fault and for larger ruptures? Likewise, how should ruptures on one fault impact the hazard from nearby faults through stress transfer? Here we will present different strategies for addressing these questions (focusing on the San Francisco Bay area and Pacific Northwest) and the potential impact on expected losses.

Session: Advancing Time-dependent PSHA and Seismic Risk Assessment: Accounting for Short- to Medium-term Clustering [Poster]

Type: Poster

Date: 4/15/2025

Presentation Time: 08:00 AM (local time)

Presenting Author: Trey

Student Presenter: No

Invited Presentation: 

Poster Number: 72

Authors