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Time-lapse Study of Earthquake Focus as an Additional Risk Control System

Description: 

There is no denying that the basic method of prevention of human and material losses is provision for adequate strength of constructions. At the same time, seismic load has stochastic character. So, at all times there is a little danger of earthquake forces to exceed selected design load. This risk is very low, but consequences of such events may be extremely serious.

Besides, it is known that temblors detrimentally affect environmental situation in regions, where they occur, resulting in panic and worsening various diseases courses. It may lead to mistakes of personnel of hazardous production facility like production and distribution of gas and oil, which may provoke severe accidents.

In such case, complex monitoring potential earthquake localities would be relevant. Even though number of successful real time forecasts of earthquakes is not great, it is well in excess such as may be under random guessing.

Experimental performed time-lapse study and analysis consist of searching seismic, biological, meteorological, and light earthquake precursors, processing such date with the help of fuzzy sets, collecting weather information, utilizing database of terrain, and computing risk of slope processes under the temblor in a given setting. Works were done in a real-time environment and broadly acceptable results took place.

Furthermore, look back study of precursors of known earthquakes is done. Situations before Ashkhabad, Tashkent, Haicheng seismic events are analyzed. Fairish findings are obtained.

It should be emphasized that such control does not required serious financial expenses and can be performed by small group of professionals.

Thus, complex monitoring potential earthquake localities including short-term earthquake forecast and analysis possible hazardous consequences of temblors, may be additional risk control system at seismic-prone areas.

Session: Advancing Time-dependent PSHA and Seismic Risk Assessment: Accounting for Short- to Medium-term Clustering [Poster]

Type: Poster

Date: 4/15/2025

Presentation Time: 08:00 AM (local time)

Presenting Author: Mikhail

Student Presenter: No

Invited Presentation: 

Poster Number: 78

Authors