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Centering Users When Designing Earthquake and Aftershock Products

Description: 

After large earthquakes, probabilistic forecasts for aftershocks can be computed using statistical models and released by science agencies to support decisions on earthquake response and recovery. Visual design choices for forecast products can affect how the forecasts are used and understood by different users. We sought to understand how forecast visual products can serve multiple user groups by holding workshops with members of target user groups, including emergency managers, civil engineers, critical infrastructure operators, urban search and rescue, the media, public communicators and public health officials. In these workshops, users performed small-group activities to elicit their specific needs on the types and dimensions of aftershock forecast information (informational needs) and how this information would optimally be packaged (product needs). In these activities, users considered their informational and products needs relative to real decisions they must make at different time points following a damaging earthquake. Workshops were held with participants from the United States, Mexico, and El Salvador to identify cross-cultural components of effective forecast communication. While user needs varied by profession, country, and the type of decision users must make, there was also agreement about what mattered most for forecast product design. Maps showing forecasted shaking from aftershocks were widely requested and different shaking variables and forecast durations were preferred at different times following the mainshock. Needs for colors, file formats and other mapping decisions varied by profession, institution and other user-specific characteristics. Non-spatial products showing forecasted trends in magnitude levels or over time were requested for certain types of decisions and time points. Based on these workshop findings, we discuss solutions for user-centered design for aftershock and other earthquake information. These include products that have been optimized around three categories of use as well as an interactive map-based viewer that can meet diverse user needs.

Session: Adventures in Social Seismology: Ethical Engagement, Earthquake Early Warnings, Operational Forecasts, and Beyond - I

Type: Oral

Date: 4/15/2025

Presentation Time: 08:45 AM (local time)

Presenting Author: Sara

Student Presenter: No

Invited Presentation: Yes

Poster Number:

Authors