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Long-term Communication of Aftershock Forecasts: the Canterbury Earthquake Sequence in New Zealand

Description: 

During the 2010-16 Canterbury Earthquake Sequence in New Zealand, social and physical scientists collaborated on an exploration of aftershock forecast communication in the long-term (e.g., over six years). A 2013 study identified aftershock forecast information needs to be various formats (e.g., text, tables, graphics) and channels (e.g., website, media, in-person) for different decision-makers; simple and accessible messages that incorporate local/regional context; preparedness advice and empathetic messaging; coordinated messages between trusted agencies and other communicators; and access to progressively more technical information for those who seek it (Wein et al., 2015; Becker et al., 2019). We followed up in 2016, eight months after the M5.7 Valentine’s Day aftershock. We held workshops with emergency managers, public health officials, and members of the public in Christchurch, New Zealand. We analyzed participant discussions for time dynamics of risk perceptions, earthquake preparedness, coping with uncertainty, trust in scientific sources, and information needs.

Key findings for long-term communications are: 1. divergent earthquake experiences revealed empathetic communication response needs for some new and re-traumatized residents and technical information (e.g., sequence behavior, earthquake sources) needs for others; 2. understanding aftershock sequence behavior is foundational to sense-making when large aftershocks occur; 3. strategic earthquake sequence updates from the trusted science agency and local agencies could serve as important reminders for earthquake preparedness; 4. communication of aftershock forecast uncertainty could aid with both the credibility of scientific information and living with uncertainty, and 5. inclusion of impact information and preparedness advice in aftershock scenarios could provide actionable information. Implications for research and practice of long-term communications of aftershock forecasts by science agencies pertain to behavioral dynamics, communication of uncertainty, communications tailored to experiences, impact-based forecasts, and coordinated messaging.

Session: Adventures in Social Seismology: Ethical Engagement, Earthquake Early Warnings, Operational Forecasts, and Beyond [Poster]

Type: Poster

Date: 4/15/2025

Presentation Time: 08:00 AM (local time)

Presenting Author: Sara

Student Presenter: No

Invited Presentation: 

Poster Number: 131

Authors