Research, Development and Implementation Priorities for Ground-motion Characterization in USGS Earthquake Hazards Program Hazard, Risk Assessment and Forecast Products
Description:
We present a 10-year roadmap for research, development, and implementation of ground-motion characterization in hazard, risk assessment, and forecast products of the U.S. Geological Survey’s Earthquake Hazards Program. Key goals include (1) prioritizing research to increase accuracy and precision, (2) using a consistent framework across geographic and tectonic regions, (3) identifying necessary data and software, and (4) identifying mechanisms for leveraging expertise from within the Earthquake Hazards Program and external partners. We focus on synergies across Earthquake Hazards Program products, such as the National Seismic Hazard Model, ShakeMap, and ShakeAlert.
Our roadmap is guided by two central questions: (1) How do we most effectively use ground motions recorded primarily from small to moderate-magnitude earthquakes to improve ground-motion characterization for damaging earthquakes? (2) How might ground motions from future damaging earthquakes differ from previously recorded ground motions? We seek a unified approach to ground-motion characterization across the National Seismic Hazard Model footprint that also incorporates multi-scale spatial variations in ground-motion model components. Priorities that we have identified include (1) expanding the suite of intensity measures to support a broader range of applications (for example, ground failure), (2) incorporating non-ergodic event terms, (3) implementing descriptions of multi-fault ruptures that capture variations in strike and dip, (4) improving one-dimensional and three-dimensional models of linear and nonlinear site response, (5) developing a unified approach for computing a mean model and epistemic uncertainties from multiple ground-motion models, and (6) leveraging simulations to fill in gaps in instrumental recordings. Furthermore, we recognize that to address these priorities, we will need comprehensive, up-to-date, well-managed databases of earthquake source parameters, ground-motion records, ground-motion intensity observations, and site characteristics.
Session: Challenges and Opportunities in Constraining Ground-motion Models from Physics-based Ground-motion Simulations - III
Type: Oral
Date: 4/17/2025
Presentation Time: 02:45 PM (local time)
Presenting Author: Brad
Student Presenter: No
Invited Presentation:
Poster Number:
Authors
Brad Aagaard Presenting Author Corresponding Author baagaard@usgs.gov U.S. Geological Survey |
Annemarie Baltay abaltay@usgs.gov U.S. Geological Survey |
Morgan Moschetti mmoschetti@usgs.gov U.S. Geological Survey |
Eric Thompson emthompson@usgs.gov U.S. Geological Survey |
Nicolas Luco nluco@usgs.gov U.S. Geological Survey |
Oliver Boyd olboyd@usgs.gov U.S. Geological Survey |
Alex Grant agrant@usgs.gov U.S. Geological Survey |
Robert Graves rwgraves@usgs.gov U.S. Geological Survey |
Evan Hirakawa ehirakawa@usgs.gov U.S. Geological Survey |
Susan E Hough hough@usgs.gov U.S. Geological Survey, Pasadena, California, United States |
Haiyang L Kehoe hkehoe@usgs.gov U.S. Geological Survey, Golden, Colorado, United States |
Andrew J Makdisi amakdisi@usgs.gov U.S. Geological Survey, Golden, Colorado, United States |
Grace A Parker gparker@usgs.gov U.S. Geological Survey, Moffett Field, California, United States |
Mark D Petersen mpetersen@usgs.gov U.S. Geological Survey, Golden, Colorado, United States |
Peter M Powers pmpowers@usgs.gov U.S. Geological Survey, Golden, Colorado, United States |
Sanaz Rezaeian srezaeian@usgs.gov U.S. Geological Survey, Golden, Colorado, United States |
William J Stephenson wstephens@usgs.gov U.S. Geological Survey, Golden, Colorado, United States |
Ian Stone istone@usgs.gov U.S. Geological Survey, Seattle, Washington, United States |
David J Wald wald@usgs.gov U.S. Geological Survey, Golden, Colorado, United States |
Erin A Wirth emoriarty@usgs.gov U.S. Geological Survey, Seattle, Washington, United States |
Kyle B Withers kwithers@usgs.gov U.S. Geological Survey, Golden, Colorado, United States |
Alan Yong yong@usgs.gov U.S. Geological Survey, Pasadena, California, United States |
Research, Development and Implementation Priorities for Ground-motion Characterization in USGS Earthquake Hazards Program Hazard, Risk Assessment and Forecast Products
Session
Challenges and Opportunities in Constraining Ground-motion Models from Physics-based Ground-motion Simulations