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WITHDRAWN Estimating Systematic Source, Site, and Path Effects in Non-ergodic Ground Motion Models: Insights From the Turkish Ground Motion Database

Description: 

WITHDRAWN The development of ground motion models (GMMs) is transitioning from ergodic to non-ergodic approaches, which account for spatially varying and systematic source, site, and path effects. This study utilizes a robust ground motion dataset and different strategies for estimating non-ergodic terms, assessing their interactions in the context of the formulation of non-ergodic GMMs. The study results show that different strategies, specifically the sequence for estimating systematic effects, can significantly impact the trade-off between non-ergodic terms, leading to different mean and correlation length estimates, but without significantly impacting the final non-ergodic standard deviation after removing systematic effects. In this context, a strategy for treating the interaction and trade-off of systematic non-ergodic terms is recommended. Specifically, the proposed approach includes an iterative identification of the distance threshold below which path effects are not expected to contribute significantly to other systematic effects, allowing a more robust estimation of site and source effects. The insights gained in this study highlight that developing GMMs extends beyond a mere exercise of statistical inference or statistical fitting, particularly for non-ergodic ground motion modeling.

Session: Challenges and Opportunities in Constraining Ground-motion Models from Physics-based Ground-motion Simulations - III

Type: Oral

Date: 4/17/2025

Presentation Time: 02:15 PM (local time)

Presenting Author: Chenying

Student Presenter: Yes

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