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Discussion Period WITHDRAWN Transient Rate-dependent Forecast for Induced Earthquakes in Carbon Sequestration

Description: 

WITHDRAWN Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS) operations can induce earthquakes during and aFer the injection operation. Accurate forecasts of induced seismic activity enable operators to assess time-dependent hazards and adjust injection strategies to mitigate risks. While statistical models and data-driven machine learning techniques are commonly used for earthquake forecasting, their reliance on abundant and precise seismic data limits their ability to capture complex geological processes, such as short-term seismicity transients.

Physics-based forecasting methods, such as the coupled Coulomb rate- and state- friction model, provide a robust theoretical framework for incorporating the underlying mechanisms responsible for transient seismicity rate changes associated with earthquake clusters. Our team has developed a framework leveraging these methods to perform fast and reliable forward modeling of space-time earthquake clustering driven by fluid migration. The process begins with identification of spatial-temporal cluster of seismic events, followed by estimation of the static.

Coulomb stress change for each cluster based on an empirical approximation of Okada’s solution. Both positive and negative Coulomb stress changes are accounted for with an optimized weighting approach. Transient seismicity rate changes are then evaluated using the rate- and state- earthquake rate model informed by these weighted Coulomb stress changes.

This approach is validated on data collected from the Illinois Basin Decatur Project, a pilot initiative for deep CO2 storage. Results demonstrate that our method effectively models the transient clustering behavior observed in the IBDP catalog. Extension of these methods to produce forecasts over many realizations can establish upper and lower bounds for seismic activity related to injection.

The work was performed under the auspices of the U.S. Department of Energy by Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory under Contract DE-AC52-07NA27344.

Session: From Physics to Forecasts: Advancements and Future Directions of Induced Seismicity Research - II

Type: Oral

Date: 4/15/2025

Presentation Time: 11:00 AM (local time)

Presenting Author: Kayla

Student Presenter: No

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