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Should the CEUS SSC Model Be Updated?

Description: 

Published in 2012, the Central and Eastern United States (CEUS) Seismic Source Characterization (SSC) for Nuclear Facilities model was developed by a consortium of regulators, nuclear utilities, and federal agencies. Because of the anticipated use of the study for the design and safety assessment of nuclear facilities, an extensive effort was devoted to the characterization and quantification of aleatory and epistemic uncertainties. Since the publication of the CEUS SSC report, nuclear and other industries have used the CEUS SSC model extensively for seismic hazard assessment at new and existing facilities. Typically, these studies have been site-specific and have included local “updating” of the CEUS SSC model to include local and recent data. Over the past 14 years, new data, models, and methods have been developed that impact potential earthquake sources and methodologies. For example, the CEUS SSC earthquake catalog extends through the end of 2008 but in the intervening 17 years, there have been notable earthquakes including the 2011 Mineral, Virginia and the 2020 Sparta, North Carolina events, and a significant increase in seismicity associated with human activities. Recent studies also have proposed new earthquake magnitude conversions relations and additional paleoseismic investigations have been performed across the region Also, the 2023 USGS National Seismic Hazard Map includes updated sources and additional sources not included in the CEUS SSC model.

Up to now, site-specific applications of the model have evaluated the impacts of new data, models, and methods that have become available since the issuance of the model. However, there has not been a comprehensive, systematic, and multi-disciplinary effort to update the entire model. With an increase in siting studies for new nuclear facilities, we argue that the time has come for a comprehensive update of the CEUS SSC model. The CEUS SSC project was conducted by a consortium of owners, regulators, and stakeholders of nuclear facilities, thus leading to broad acceptance by the industry. Perhaps a similar consortium can be organized for its update.

Session: Advancing Seismic Hazard and Risk Assessment through Multi-Disciplinary Approaches - I

Type: Oral

Date: 4/15/2026

Presentation Time: 10:45 AM (local time)

Presenting Author: Maria Arcos

Student Presenter: No

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