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Stochastic Analysis of Avalanches and Slushflows Triggered by Earthquakes

Description: 

In some regions, for example, in British Columbia and Alaska, both avalanches and strong earthquakes are possible. Seismic slushflows are not impossible too. So, developing mathematical support for estimation of these slope processes risk in the light of data about area’s seismicity presents some features of interest

Seismic load and meteorological factors have stochastic and complex nature. Accordingly, Monte Carlo method [1] is used for analysis. For utilizing this methodology, probability density functions of every meteorological factors for each day of year for given avalanche origination site are built at first. Date of a seismic event is randomly selected too. Combination of weather conditions and temblor leads to slope processes in some realization. Risk of occurring an avalanche or a slushflow is estimated as described in [2]. To compute runout distance equation of ẍ = g · [sinα(x) – k(x)·cosα(x)] - 0.000271· [p_air/p_av(x)] ^0.1402 · ẋ², where x is coordinate along the slope, m; g is gravity acceleration, m/s², k(x) is friction coefficient, α is slope inclination, p_air is air density, p_av(x) is density of avalanche of slushflow material, is solved. All these taken together permit to adequately assess risk of such seismic slope processes.

References

1. Kalos, M. H. Monte Carlo Methods / M. H. Kalos, P. A. Whitlock. – Weinheim: WILEY-VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, 2008. – 203 p.

2. Zimin, M. I. Mathematical Model and Software for Avalanche Forecasting / M. I. Zimin, O. A. Kumukova, M. M. Zimin // Russian Journal of Cybernetics. – 2020. – Vol. 1. – No. 1. – P. 63 – 80.

Session: Advancing Seismic Hazard and Risk Assessment through Multi-Disciplinary Approaches [Poster]

Type: Poster

Date: 4/15/2026

Presentation Time: 08:00 AM (local time)

Presenting Author: Mikhail Zimin

Student Presenter: No

Invited Presentation: 

Poster Number: 52

Authors