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WITHDRAWN Applying Selena for Seismic Risk Analysis in Kenya

Description: 

WITHDRAWN Kenya is situated within the eastern branch of the East African Rift System, a tectonically active region capable of generating damaging earthquakes. While regional seismic hazard levels are moderate, rapid urbanization, increasing population density, and the widespread presence of vulnerable and non-engineered building stock significantly elevate seismic risk, particularly in major urban centers. This study applies the principles of SELENA (SEismic Loss EstimatioN using a logic-tree Approach) to develop a comprehensive seismic risk assessment framework tailored to Kenyan conditions. The methodology integrates seismic hazard, exposure, and structural vulnerability within a displacement-based capacity spectrum approach, enabling the systematic estimation of physical damage, economic losses, and human casualties under representative earthquake scenarios.

Seismic demand is defined using scenario-based response spectra consistent with regional seismotectonic characteristics, incorporating local site effects through soil classification and amplification factors. Structural performance is evaluated using nonlinear capacity curves for representative Kenyan building typologies, including unreinforced masonry, reinforced concrete frame systems, and non-engineered constructions. Fragility functions relate spectral displacement at the performance point to probabilistic damage states, while a logic-tree framework explicitly accounts for epistemic uncertainties associated with seismic sources, ground-motion prediction, soil conditions, vulnerability models, and loss parameters. Damage outcomes are aggregated at the level of geographical units and translated into direct economic losses using regionally adapted cost models, while human casualties are estimated based on damage probabilities and time-dependent occupancy patterns. The results demonstrate that even moderate earthquake scenarios can lead to substantial damage and losses due to high exposure and vulnerability, highlighting the suitability of SELENA as a transparent and uncertainty-aware tool for seismic risk-informed planning and disaster risk reduction in Kenya.

Session: Advancing Seismic Hazard and Risk Assessment through Multi-Disciplinary Approaches [Poster]

Type: Poster

Date: 4/15/2026

Presentation Time: 08:00 AM (local time)

Presenting Author: Kevin K. Kuria

Student Presenter: Yes

Invited Presentation: 

Poster Number: 45

Authors