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WITHDRAWN A Partially Nonergodic Seismic Hazard Framework Using Earthquake-cycle Simulations

Description: 

WITHDRAWN Seismic hazard assessment is commonly constrained by the limited duration of instrumental earthquake records, ergodic assumptions and by the simplified representation of the rupture process. These limitations are particularly relevant in regions with complex fault geometries and strong fault-segment interactions, where large ruptures may span multiple segments. In this study, we develop a partially non-ergodic probabilistic seismic hazard assessment framework that couples long-term earthquake-cycle simulations with physics-based ground-motion modeling. We apply this framework to the Gulf of Aqaba fault system, the southern continuation of the Dead Sea fault zone. First, we conduct multi-cycle earthquake simulations to generate 10,000-years-long earthquake catalogs that capture the variability in earthquake recurrence, rupture dimensions, and fault-segment connectivity, including single and multi-segment rupture scenarios. In the next step, we use the source time functions of simulated M6+ earthquakes as input for seismic-wave-propagation computations at over 200 virtual seismic stations. From these, we compute different ground-motion intensity measures and their associated variabilities (between and within-event) and compare them with NGA-West2 ground-motion models. We construct hazard curves and maps using a non-parametric kernel-density formulation of exceedance rates and compare these physics-based results with empirical ground motion models (GMM) applied to the same synthetic catalogues.

Our results indicate that long-period amplitudes fall within the ±2σ range of GMMs, with systematic underestimation at larger distances that we attribute to the simplified 1D velocity structure. Furthermore, we implement statistical tests on a 100,000-year reference simulation to show that 10,000-year catalogues are sufficient to obtain statistically stable SA distributions and robust regional hazard estimates. This finding reduces computational cost without the computational burden of excessively long simulation periods.

Session: Advancing Seismic Hazard and Risk Assessment through Multi-Disciplinary Approaches [Poster]

Type: Poster

Date: 4/15/2026

Presentation Time: 08:00 AM (local time)

Presenting Author: Theodoros Aspiotis

Student Presenter: No

Invited Presentation: 

Poster Number: 37

Authors