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Probabilistic Induced Seismic Hazard Analysis in the Western Canada Sedimentary Basin

Description: 

We investigate seismic hazard at several locations in the western Canada sedimentary basin from background and induced seismicity through a Monte Carlo-based probabilistic seismic hazard analysis. We develop our background seismicity models based on the sources developed in the 6^th generation of national seismic hazard model of Canada. To develop induced seismicity source models, we use the observed seismicity from an earthquake catalogue compiled in this study excluding mining-related seismicity. 100 synthetic sub-catalogues, each with duration of 1000 years, are generated for each alternative in the characteristics of seismic sources and ground motions are estimated from each earthquake using a suite of ground motion models applicable to both active and stable shallow crust earthquakes. Finally, hazard curves are constructed by counting the number of times ground motions are exceeded and dividing by the total duration of synthetic seismicity (i.e., 100,000 years). Results show that, 1) the spatial footprint of induced-seismicity-driven hazard is highly localized to the vicinity of injection operations, 2) the effect of induced seismicity is more pronounced on peak ground acceleration than peak ground velocity, and 3) the contribution of induced seismicity to total seismic hazard (background and induced) is greatest at higher annual exceedance rates, corresponding to the more frequent, smaller ground motions.

Session: From Drilling to Ground Shaking: Mechanisms, Monitoring and Mitigation of Induced Earthquakes - I

Type: Oral

Date: 4/17/2026

Presentation Time: 08:00 AM (local time)

Presenting Author: Ali Mahani

Student Presenter: No

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