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The Bound Growth of Induced Earthquakes Could De-risk Hydraulic Fracturing

Description: 

The world's energy supply depends critically on hydraulic fracturing (HF) to access otherwise uneconomical resources. Unfortunately, HF also has the potential to induce larger earthquakes – with some projects being prematurely terminated because of perceived earthquake risks. To de-risk HF, we use a suite of statistical tests to discern if some physical process has restricted the growth of earthquake magnitudes. We show that all stage stimulations at both UK PNR-1z and Helsinki St1 indicate bound fracture growth, implying a more controllable operation. Contrastingly, stimulations at Utah FORGE and UK PNR-2 sequentially transitioned into unbound fault reactivation. The problematic stages (that ultimately led to the termination of PNR-2) are clearly distinguishable. We postulate that our research can discriminate fracture stimulation from fault reactivation, contributing to the de-risking of HF operations worldwide. Our statistical tests provide a framework for model falsification, which can guide physical insights into the bounding processes.

Session: From Drilling to Ground Shaking: Mechanisms, Monitoring and Mitigation of Induced Earthquakes - I

Type: Oral

Date: 4/17/2026

Presentation Time: 08:45 AM (local time)

Presenting Author: Ryan Schultz

Student Presenter: No

Invited Presentation: Yes

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Authors