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Earthquake Nucleation Characteristics Driven by Seasonal Stress From Gas Production at the Geysers, California

Description: 

The Geysers, California, as the world’s largest commercial geothermal reservoir, has over 400 active injection and steam wells and tens of thousands of earthquakes each year. In this study, we applied a stochastic ETAS model to an enhanced earthquake catalog of this region and identified significant seismicity variations at seasonal periods. We then adopted the FLOW2QUAKE framework which is an integrated model combining multiphase flow, geomechanics, and seismicity forecasting. Using historical injection and steam production data along with a simplified reservoir model based on vertical flow equilibrium, we reconstructed pore pressure changes over time. These were further processed into poroelastic stress changes through a mechanical model. We then model the seismicity response to seasonal gas production to invert for the frictional parameters assuming a nucleation process governed by rate-and-state friction. Our model successfully captures the distinct seismic features at The Geysers, providing new insight into the fault nucleation process and illuminating the characteristics of earthquake nucleation process.

Session: From Drilling to Ground Shaking: Mechanisms, Monitoring and Mitigation of Induced Earthquakes [Poster]

Type: Poster

Date: 4/17/2026

Presentation Time: 08:00 AM (local time)

Presenting Author: Huiyun Guo

Student Presenter: No

Invited Presentation: 

Poster Number: 96

Authors