Whither the Big One: Dynamic Rupture Modeling of Large Historic San Andreas-System Earthquakes

Date: 4/26/2019

Time: 09:00 AM

Room: Pike

The San Andreas fault system is responsible for many of California’s most damaging historic earthquakes. Understanding the specific causative faults and rupture behaviors for these events is therefore critical for assessing seismic hazard in California. However, most of these events occurred early in, or entirely before the age of instrumental seismology. Firsthand accounts of shaking intensity and damage, as well as paleoseismic records, can pin specific earthquakes to likely faults, but this does not inherently address the rupture process or even the physical plausibility of a given interpretation of an event. Dynamic rupture modeling can add the aspect of rupture physics to the question of deciphering the historic earthquake record. Here, I will discuss how dynamic models with observation-based inputs can be compared to paleoseismic and historic intensity records to better understand the processes of several historic San Andreas system earthquakes, including the 1812 Wrightwood and 1857 Fort Tejon events.

Presenting Author: Julian Lozos

Authors