U.S. Geological Survey National Seismic Hazard Model Components
Date: 4/24/2019
Time: 8:30 AM to 12:00 PM
Room: Pike
The U.S. Geological Survey will soon complete the 2018 update to the National Seismic Hazard Model (NSHM) for the coterminous U.S. This update has begun an experiment with a more frequent update process that shortens the time between releases from six to three years on average. More frequent updates permit fewer model changes per update, more opportunities for adoption by a wide array of users and release of the latest models representing best-available science. For instance, the 2018 NSHM update mainly incorporated NGA-East for U.S. Geological Survey (Goulet et al., 2017) in the central and eastern U.S. The NGA-East ground motion model marks a significant change in how we characterize the epistemic uncertainty in ground motions, and it is essential that we be able to evaluate and understand the model without the additional complexity of source model or implementation changes that are necessary to include in longer update cycles. This session focuses on the latest such models and the tools and techniques used to evaluate them. The 2014 update to NSHM for the conterminous U.S. saw the adoption of UCERF3, NGA-West2 and new adaptive smoothing techniques for gridded seismicity sources. The 2018 update brought in NGA-East and considered basin amplification effects in the western U.S. Forthcoming updates will consider NGA-Subduction, the use of the UCERF3 inversion methodology for Alaskan fault systems and further use of simulation-based ground motions. The latest models also commonly present implementation and application challenges. We invite submissions on, but not limited to, the NSHM components listed above. In particular, submissions should focus on sensitivity testing, comparative analysis, implementation techniques, new evaluation tools or metrics, new uses and applications of existing analyses (e.g. deaggregation) or uncertainty analysis.
Conveners
Peter M. Powers, U.S. Geological Survey (pmpowers@usgs.gov)
Allison M. Shumway, U.S. Geological Survey (ashumway@usgs.gov)
Mark D. Petersen, U.S. Geological Survey (mpetersen@usgs.gov)
Sanaz Rezaeian, U.S. Geological Survey (srezaeian@usgs.gov)
Richard W. Briggs, U.S. Geological Survey (rbriggs@usgs.gov)
Robert C. Witter, U.S. Geological Survey (rwitter@usgs.gov)
Charles S. Mueller, U.S. Geological Survey (cmueller@usgs.gov)
Oral Presentations
| Participant Role | Details | Start Time | Minutes | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Submission | 2018 Update of the U.S. National Seismic Hazard Model | 08:30 AM | 15 | View |
| Submission | Additional Period and Site Class Maps for the 2018 USGS National Seismic Hazard Model | 08:45 AM | 15 | View |
| Submission | Evaluation of Ground Motion Models for USGS Seismic Hazard Forecasts: NGA-Subduction | 09:00 AM | 15 | View |
| Submission | Uncertainties in Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis for a Poisson Earthquake Occurrence Model | 09:15 AM | 15 | View |
| Submission | Impacts on Catastrophe Loss Modeling from Multi-Segment and Multiple Fault Ruptures in UCERF3 | 09:30 AM | 15 | View |
| Other Time | Posters and Break | 09:45 AM | 60 | |
| Submission | Updating the Seismic Source Model for a New USGS Earthquake Hazard Map of Alaska | 10:45 AM | 15 | View |
| Submission | Deformation in the August 2018 Mw 6.4 Kaktovik (North Slope), Alaska Earthquake | 11:00 AM | 15 | View |
| Submission | Updated GK17 Ground Motion Prediction Equation for Shallow Crustal Continental Earthquakes and Use of Proper Terminology | 11:15 AM | 15 | View |
| Submission | Alaska Megathrust Source Characterization for Tsunami Hazard | 11:30 AM | 15 | View |
| Total: | 195 Minute(s) |
U.S. Geological Survey National Seismic Hazard Model Components
Description