Preparing Communities in Western Nepal for Their Next Major Earthquake, Using Scenarios and Action Plans

Date: 4/25/2019

Time: 06:00 PM

Room: Grand Ballroom

The portion of the Main Himalayan Thrust System in western Nepal last experienced a major earthquake in 1505 AD. Communities there must prepare for a repeat of a comparable earthquake. To motivate and assist local officials to reduce the impacts of such an event, we developed earthquake scenarios for three districts in western Nepal based on scientifically derived consequences of a hypothetical, future earthquake. Our story-based narratives follow fictional characters and paint a picture of the disaster easily imagined by local, lay audiences. Appendices contain more detail and technical documentation. We offer recommendations so that local stakeholders can take steps now to reduce suffering in future earthquakes.

Our scenarios for the Dadeldhura, Rukum West, and Bajhang districts depict the consequences of a M7.8 event with peak ground accelerations up to 0.8g. Depending on the district, 3,000-4,000 people die, and 7,000-10,000 are seriously injured. We calculated that 50-67% of buildings collapse. In the dry season 700-6,000 landslides occur, with twice as many during the monsoon, blocking roads and isolating people from markets, medical services, and schools. The many who live far from municipal centers are particularly isolated, as trail bridges across rivers may take up to a year to repair. Impacts throughout the districts and in municipalities affect schools, health facilities, roads, and utilities.

Using scenario insights, we helped government leaders draft action plans focused on measures that provide the greatest, quickly realized benefits. Examples include strengthening municipal water tanks and communication towers, enforcing building and land-use codes, training local engineers and builders in seismic design and construction, stockpiling critical supplies, practicing emergency communications, and preparing schoolchildren. For each action, there is a local responsible party. Officials welcomed this approach, particularly in the rapidly growing municipalities of Amargadhi and Musikot.

Presenting Author: Heidi Stenner

Authors