Synthetic Seismicity in New Zealand

Session: Crustal Stress and Strain and Implications for Fault Interaction and Slip
Type: Oral
Date: 4/28/2020
Time: 09:30 AM
Room: 240
Description: 

Large earthquakes commonly cluster in space and time. This means that in any given observational time window (e.g. 10 years), the average occurrence of large events may be significantly different than the long-term (e.g. 1000s of years) average. Unfortunately, the duration of scientific recording of earthquakes both globally and in New Zealand is insufficient to capture the full variation of space, time and magnitude of the earthquake process. Having limited durations of earthquake catalogs severely limits our ability to reduce uncertainty in earthquake forecasts and remains one of the largest challenges in quantifying seismic hazard. This is especially the case in New Zealand. Over the last decade, we have experienced four earthquakes with M>7, including the November 2016 Mw7.8 Kaikoura earthquake. The influence of these events on future seismic hazard is uncertain. In an attempt to overcome challenges resulting from a limited duration of the seismic catalogue and to better assess the effects of the Mw7.8 Kaikoura we have begun an ambitious 5-year project to employ a computational approach to simulate the earthquake cycle in the specific New Zealand context. We are currently using the RSQSim rate state framework to develop 1st generation models. Eventually, we will analyse these models to determine if they provide useful information for 3 discrete follow-on projects: 1) Probabilistic tsunami hazard modelling, 2) earthquake and tsunami early warning and 3) topographic amplification and probabilistic landslide modelling. Framework and initial results will be presented.

Presenting Author: Bill Fry

Authors