Investigating Earthquake Early Warning Feasibility across Europe

Session: Earthquake Early Warning: Current Status and Latest Innovations [Poster]
Type: Poster
Date: 4/29/2020
Time: 08:00 AM
Room: Ballroom
Description: 

From 2006-2017, Europe experienced at least 25 earthquake-related disasters that resulted in more than 1,000 fatalities, greater than €40 billion in economic losses and directly affected close to 300,0000 people. These figures highlight a clear need to implement effective measures for mitigating seismic risk throughout the continent. Earthquake early warning systems (EEWSs) represent one such potential measure, as they have already reduced earthquake risk in other parts of the world (e.g. Japan). These systems consist of seismic networks and models capable of real-time data telemetry that alert stakeholders, such as civil protection authorities, to the nucleation of an earthquake seconds to minutes before strong shaking occurs at target sites. During this time, actions can be taken to significantly decrease detrimental impacts. This study explores the feasibility of implementing a European-wide EEWS. We consider a number of candidate earthquake early warning (EEW) algorithms, including PRESTo (PRobabilistic and Evolutionary early warning SysTem), which was designed for EEW in Italy and ElarmS (Earthquake Alarm Systems), which is implemented in the ShakeAlert EEWS of the U.S. West Coast. We specifically investigate the probability distributions of the lead times available for risk-reduction strategies to be implemented once a warning is issued. The analyses are based on regional seismicity and the density of seismic networks across different parts of the continent; we use both recorded ground motions from past earthquakes (to accurately capture the characteristics of seismic waveforms) and synthetic EEW data simulated from seismic hazard models (to examine a wide range of potential magnitudes and exposure distances). We determine spatial relationships between the lead times and the probability of damage from scenario events, using risk prediction tools from earthquake engineering. The results are information-dependent lead-time and damage maps for Europe, which can be used to understand if/how an effective European EEWS can be achieved.

Presenting Author: Gemma Cremen

Authors