Constructing a Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis Framework for the Moon

Session: InSight Seismology on Mars: Results From the First (Earth) Year of Data and Prospects for the Future [Poster]
Type: Poster
Date: 4/28/2020
Time: 08:00 AM
Room: Ballroom
Description: 

High resolution images and altimetry data from the Lunar Reconnaissance Orbiter spacecraft have allowed detailed mapping of tectonic features on the Moon, including lobate scarps, wrinkle ridges and graben. The locations of these faults can now be combined with our understanding of evidence for and characteristics of recent activity along faults, the impact crater production rate, newly developed lunar seismic ground motion scenario shakemaps and data from the Apollo-era seismic network on the nature of the lunar subsurface. These data collectively offer the components needed to develop a preliminary probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) for the Moon. In this study we explore preliminary applications and extensions of existing PSHA methods (e.g., as utilized in the nuclear industry and more broadly) to probabilistically assess seismic hazard on the Moon and other planetary bodies. Here we also focus on quantifying the site response component of the hazard through a case study comparing the amplitude and frequency of the first primary resonance peak (f_peak) measured applying the horizontal-to-vertical spectral ratio method to Apollo and InSight teleseismic records from the Moon and Mars. These results will provide a preliminary understanding of near-surface properties important for estimating the site response needed to construct a preliminary PSHA for the Moon and also offer an improved understanding of near-surface stratigraphy on the Moon and Mars. This earthquake site characterization information is essential to support the future design and construction of structures, systems and components (especially possible nuclear-based power source options) and is particularly timely in lieu of renewed interest in the lunar surface operating environment and NASA’s Artemis lunar exploration program. Additionally, the results of this study will help identify information needs in support of the development of future seismic monitoring networks for the Moon, Mars and other bodies.

Presenting Author: Lisa S. Schleicher

Authors