Accuracy Analysis of U.S. Geological Survey PAGER Alerts

Session: Science Gateways and Computational Tools for Improving Earthquake Research [Poster]
Type: Poster
Date: 4/30/2020
Time: 08:00 AM
Room: Ballroom
Description: 

The USGS PAGER (Prompt Assessment of Global Earthquakes for Response) system uses a deterministic model for prediction of fatalities and economic damage caused by earthquakes at discrete levels of shaking intensity, producing thousands of such estimates since its deployment in late 2010. The PAGER loss models are used to estimate damages rapidly, approximately 20 minutes after an event, in order to inform interested parties of the potential levels of response and aid needed. PAGER must provide precise loss estimates on the same order of magnitude as the actual damages to be considered useful by emergency managers. In this study, we strive to validate PAGER-estimated casualty and loss values via graphical residual analysis and statistical analysis methods using a database of earthquake casualty and economic loss information since 2010. Analysis shows that PAGER accurately estimated the correct alert for the majority of low fatality earthquakes, are within an order of magnitude for high fatality earthquakes, and alerts for highly consequential earthquakes were rapidly (within an hour) and accurately produced. Additionally, estimates for each event are improved as refined ShakeMaps with updated shaking estimates are incorporated.

Presenting Author: John Presenting Corrette

Authors