Stop the Presses: Aftershock Forecasts in the Media from Bombay Beach to Anchorage to Ridgecrest

Session: Weathering the Earthquake Storms: Crisis Communication Following Major Events [Poster]
Type: Poster
Date: 4/28/2020
Time: 08:00 AM
Room: Ballroom
Description: 

We conducted a media analysis of three earthquake sequences involving the public release of aftershock forecasts: Bombay Beach swarm (2016), M7.1 Anchorage earthquake (2018) and the M6.4 and M7.1 Ridgecrest earthquake sequence (2019). From 2016 to 2018, a template for aftershock forecasts was developed to provide quick information on the potential for larger earthquakes. Through media analysis of these three events, we established how and when the media used these forecasts. Specifically, we explore how the media changed its style and tone regarding the forecasts from the pre-template response during the Bombay Beach swarm to when templates were introduced for the Anchorage earthquake. We had further refinements in the communication of the forecasts from the Anchorage earthquake to the Ridgecrest earthquakes.

Aftershock forecasts have been developed over more than 30 years, from creating the statistical models to the construction of communication products to convey their meaning. Communicating probabilistic aftershock forecast information to various audiences is a challenge. From a lack of understanding about how probabilities are estimated to issues around miscommunication of predictions, developing a forecast template that adequately communicates the complexities of these forecasts remains challenging. Through our media analysis, we developed an analytical framework to process how one of our key stakeholders, the media, understands and communicates our forecasts to other audiences. This research provides a unique opportunity compare how the media communicated aftershock forecasts from large U.S. earthquakes that occurred in close temporal proximity and how this differed from communications following the earlier Bombay Beach swarm.

Presenting Author: Michael L. Blanpied

Authors