Risk-Informed Recommendations for Managing Hydraulic Fracturing Induced Seismicity via Traffic Light Protocols

Session: Mechanisms of Induced Seismicity: Pressure Diffusion, Elastic Stressing and Aseismic Slip [Poster]
Type: Poster
Date: 4/29/2020
Time: 08:00 AM
Room: Ballroom
Description: 

Risks from induced earthquakes caused by hydraulic fracturing are a growing concern with a need for effective management. Here, we develop a risk-informed strategy for choosing red and yellow traffic light thresholds, based on the current understanding of induced earthquakes. To do so, we utilize probabilistic maximum magnitudes, magnitude to ground motion relationships, population densities, statistical distributions of site amplification and felt/damaging ground motion thresholds to compute the risk of damage or nuisance. Risk curves for various forecast scenarios highlight two proposed guidelines. First, red-light thresholds should be set within the nuisance range of ground motions, to reduce the chances that run-away earthquakes could cause unacceptable damage. Second, yellow-light thresholds should be set approximately two magnitude units less than the red-light, to ensure that operators have a sufficient opportunity to enact mitigation strategies. We compare the differences in risk between several real-life traffic light cases; to illustrate how this approach could allow regulators to design traffic light protocols in a risk-informed manner and thus balance the costs of their decisions more effectively. Our approach also promotes the transparent communication of risk to all involved stakeholders.

Presenting Author: Ryan Schultz

Authors