Modeling Hazard from Induced Seismicity in Oklahoma

Session: Mechanisms of Induced Seismicity: Pressure Diffusion, Elastic Stressing and Aseismic Slip [Poster]
Type: Poster
Date: 4/29/2020
Time: 08:00 AM
Room: Ballroom
Description: 

Seismicity rates in Oklahoma rose dramatically after 2010 due to human-induced sources, causing a large-scale increase in seismic hazard in comparison to the long term USGS forecast. In response, the USGS released one-year seismic hazard forecasts in 2016, 2017 and 2018. Catastrophe modeling companies such as AIR Worldwide are tasked with providing an up to date view of risk for their insurance clients using the most scientifically advanced and accurate hazard maps for a given region. The USGS have since ceased publication leaving the market with no new view of short-term risk.

USGS’s 2018 one-year seismic hazard forecast is based on historical data through the end of 2017. Due to regulations imposed by the Oklahoma Corporation Commission among other factors, overall seismicity rates have generally decreased in Oklahoma since 2016. Here we seek to quantify the latest human-induced seismic hazard using data from OGS, USGS, GCMT and SLU, along with detailed information regarding hydraulic fracking and injection/disposal well history, regional geology and current regulation information. Combining induced historical earthquake information with our own source zone boundaries and parameters, optimally-oriented fault information, ground motion model and soil information we develop results for spectral acceleration (SA) and peak ground acceleration (PGA). We compare this with USGS’s 2018 one-year seismic hazard forecast along with several recently published annual magnitude exceedance probability forecasts.

Presenting Author: Meredith Kraner

Authors