2023 US 50-State National Seismic Hazard Model
We are developing the 2023 U.S. National Seismic Hazard Model for all 50 states by applying new seismicity, fault rupture models and ground motion assessments. We consider two types of models: (1) a public model that guides hazard assessments intended for building code provisions and policy applications and (2) a research model geared towards less formal applications that may be included in future public models. New data and methods will be introduced in the 2023 earthquake source components: earthquake catalogs - excluding induced earthquakes, alternative declustering methods, spatially smoothed seismicity, scaled rates to account for aftershocks, new geodetic and geologic data and fault rupture models accounting for a more complete representation of potential earthquakes in Alaska, Hawaii and the conterminous U.S. Improved ground motion models (GMMs) consider new NGA-Subduction, modified NGA-East and NGA-West2, as well as other published models. Some NGA-subduction and earthquake source models contain changes in median and aleatory variability that need to be evaluated and weighted. Basin amplification models will also consider 3D simulations with potential modifications at basin edges. Preliminary assessments indicate several relatively shallow Intermountain-West basins exhibit greater long-period amplifications than estimated by NGA-West2, potentially warranting additional basin-specific observations and simulations. New stress drop, tomographic and other geophysical models help refine the complex boundary between the tectonically stable and active regions used in assigning GMMs. The research model may incorporate more geological information on timing of past earthquakes for a time-dependent assessment and regional variations in earthquake shaking accounting for a partially non-ergodic ground motion representation. Scenarios and population exposure assessments of these models will help users assess impacts of the earthquakes.
Session: 50-State Update of the USGS National Seismic Hazard Models
Type: Oral
Room: Grand E-K
Date: 4/20/2022
Presentation Time: 08:00 AM Pacific
Presenting Author: Mark D. Petersen
Student Presenter: No
Additional Authors
Mark Petersen Presenting Author Corresponding Author mpetersen@usgs.gov U.S. Geological Survey |
Allison Shumway ashumway@usgs.gov U.S. Geological Survey |
Peter Powers pmpowers@usgs.gov U.S. Geological Survey |
Edward Field field@usgs.gov U.S. Geological Survey |
Morgan Moschetti mmoschetti@usgs.gov U.S. Geological Survey |
Kishor Jaiswal kjaiswal@usgs.gov U.S. Geological Survey |
Arthur Frankel afrankel@usgs.gov U.S. Geological Survey |
Kenneth Rukstales rukstales@usgs.gov U.S. Geological Survey |
Sanaz Rezaeian srezaeian@usgs.gov U.S. Geological Survey |
Oliver S Boyd olboyd@usgs.gov U.S. Geological Survey, Denver, Colorado, United States |
Sean K Ahdi sahdi@usgs.gov U.S. Geological Survey, Denver, Colorado, United States |
Kyle B Withers kwithers@usgs.gov U.S. Geological Survey, Denver, Colorado, United States |
Brad T Aagaard baagaard@usgs.gov U.S. Geological Survey, Denver, Colorado, United States |
James A Smith jamesasmith@usgs.gov U.S. Geological Survey, Denver, Colorado, United States |
Erin A Wirth emoriarty@usgs.gov U.S. Geological Survey, Seattle, Washington, United States |
Andrea Llenos allenos@usgs.gov U.S. Geological Survey, Denver, Colorado, United States |
Andrew J Michael ajmichael@usgs.gov U.S. Geological Survey, Moffett Field, California, United States |
Justin L Rubinstein jrubinstein@usgs.gov U.S. Geological Survey, Moffett Field, California, United States |
Fred F Pollitz fpollitz@usgs.gov U.S. Geological Survey, Moffett Field, California, United States |
Yuehua Zeng zeng@usgs.gov U.S. Geological Survey, Denver, Colorado, United States |
Alexandra E Hatem ahatem@usgs.gov U.S. Geological Survey, Denver, Colorado, United States |
Jessica A T Jobe jjobe@usgs.gov U.S. Geological Survey, Denver, Colorado, United States |
Rich W Briggs rbriggs@usgs.gov U.S. Geological Survey, Denver, Colorado, United States |
Nico Luco nluco@usgs.gov U.S. Geological Survey, Denver, Colorado, United States |
Henry B Mason hmason@contractor.usgs.gov U.S. Geological Survey, Denver, Colorado, United States |
Robert E Chase rchase@usgs.gov U.S. Geological Survey, Denver, Colorado, United States |
Brandon S Clayton bclayton@usgs.gov U.S. Geological Survey, Denver, Colorado, United States |
Jason M Altekruse jaltekruse@usgs.gov U.S. Geological Survey, Denver, Colorado, United States |
Leah Salditch lsalditch@usgs.gov U.S. Geological Survey, Denver, Colorado, United States |
2023 US 50-State National Seismic Hazard Model
Category
50-State Update of the USGS National Seismic Hazard Models
Description