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Session: 50-State Update of the USGS National Seismic Hazard Models

Type: Oral

Room: Grand E-K

Date: 4/20/2022

Presentation Time: 08:00 AM Pacific

Presenting Author: Mark D. Petersen

Description

We are developing the 2023 U.S. National Seismic Hazard Model for all 50 states by applying new seismicity, fault rupture models and ground motion assessments. We consider two types of models: (1) a public model that guides hazard assessments intended for building code provisions and policy applications and (2) a research model geared towards less formal applications that may be included in future public models. New data and methods will be introduced in the 2023 earthquake source components: earthquake catalogs - excluding induced earthquakes, alternative declustering methods, spatially smoothed seismicity, scaled rates to account for aftershocks, new geodetic and geologic data and fault rupture models accounting for a more complete representation of potential earthquakes in Alaska, Hawaii and the conterminous U.S. Improved ground motion models (GMMs) consider new NGA-Subduction, modified NGA-East and NGA-West2, as well as other published models. Some NGA-subduction and earthquake source models contain changes in median and aleatory variability that need to be evaluated and weighted. Basin amplification models will also consider 3D simulations with potential modifications at basin edges. Preliminary assessments indicate several relatively shallow Intermountain-West basins exhibit greater long-period amplifications than estimated by NGA-West2, potentially warranting additional basin-specific observations and simulations. New stress drop, tomographic and other geophysical models help refine the complex boundary between the tectonically stable and active regions used in assigning GMMs. The research model may incorporate more geological information on timing of past earthquakes for a time-dependent assessment and regional variations in earthquake shaking accounting for a partially non-ergodic ground motion representation. Scenarios and population exposure assessments of these models will help users assess impacts of the earthquakes.

Additional Authors

Mark D Petersen

Presenting Author Corresponding Author

mpetersen@usgs.gov

U.S. Geological Survey, Denver, Colorado, United States

Allison M Shumway

ashumway@usgs.gov

U.S. Geological Survey, Denver, Colorado, United States

Peter M Powers

pmpowers@usgs.gov

U.S. Geological Survey, Denver, Colorado, United States

Edward H Field

field@usgs.gov

U.S. Geological Survey, Denver, Colorado, United States

Morgan P Moschetti

mmoschetti@usgs.gov

U.S. Geological Survey, Denver, Colorado, United States

Kishor S Jaiswal

kjaiswal@usgs.gov

U.S. Geological Survey, Denver, Colorado, United States

Arthur D Frankel

afrankel@usgs.gov

U.S. Geological Survey, Seattle, Washington, United States

Kenneth S Rukstales

rukstales@usgs.gov

U.S. Geological Survey, Denver, Colorado, United States

Sanaz Rezaeian

srezaeian@usgs.gov

U.S. Geological Survey, Denver, Colorado, United States

Oliver S Boyd

olboyd@usgs.gov

U.S. Geological Survey, Denver, Colorado, United States

Sean K Ahdi

sahdi@usgs.gov

U.S. Geological Survey, Denver, Colorado, United States

Kyle B Withers

kwithers@usgs.gov

U.S. Geological Survey, Denver, Colorado, United States

Brad T Aagaard

baagaard@usgs.gov

U.S. Geological Survey, Denver, Colorado, United States

James A Smith

jamesasmith@usgs.gov

U.S. Geological Survey, Denver, Colorado, United States

Erin A Wirth

emoriarty@usgs.gov

U.S. Geological Survey, Seattle, Washington, United States

Andrea Llenos

allenos@usgs.gov

U.S. Geological Survey, Denver, Colorado, United States

Andrew J Michael

ajmichael@usgs.gov

U.S. Geological Survey, Moffett Field, California, United States

Justin L Rubinstein

jrubinstein@usgs.gov

U.S. Geological Survey, Moffett Field, California, United States

Fred F Pollitz

fpollitz@usgs.gov

U.S. Geological Survey, Moffett Field, California, United States

Yuehua Zeng

zeng@usgs.gov

U.S. Geological Survey, Denver, Colorado, United States

Alexandra E Hatem

ahatem@usgs.gov

U.S. Geological Survey, Denver, Colorado, United States

Jessica A T Jobe

jjobe@usgs.gov

U.S. Geological Survey, Denver, Colorado, United States

Rich W Briggs

rbriggs@usgs.gov

U.S. Geological Survey, Denver, Colorado, United States

Nico Luco

nluco@usgs.gov

U.S. Geological Survey, Denver, Colorado, United States

Henry B Mason

hmason@contractor.usgs.gov

U.S. Geological Survey, Denver, Colorado, United States

Robert E Chase

rchase@usgs.gov

U.S. Geological Survey, Denver, Colorado, United States

Brandon S Clayton

bclayton@usgs.gov

U.S. Geological Survey, Denver, Colorado, United States

Jason M Altekruse

jaltekruse@usgs.gov

U.S. Geological Survey, Denver, Colorado, United States

Leah Salditch

lsalditch@usgs.gov

U.S. Geological Survey, Denver, Colorado, United States

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