Date: 4/20/2021
Session Time: 9:45 AM to 11:00 AM Pacific
Constructing and Testing Regional and Global Earthquake Forecasts
Regional and global earthquake rate and rupture forecasts underpin seismic hazard and risk assessments. They can also serve to test critical hypotheses about seismogenesis, including earthquake nucleation, rupture, interaction and variations of their characteristics with tectonic setting. Global models offer greater testability than regional models because of the larger and more frequent earthquakes. Initiatives to construct and test global models have been led by the Global Earthquake Model (GEM) Foundation, the Southern California Earthquake Center (SCEC), the European H2020 project RISE, re/insurance interests and others. Regional models, on the other hand, benefit from more available and higher resolution datasets, from dense geological records to waveform-similarity enhanced catalogs and long historical catalogs that can be exploited to express bespoke hypotheses, such as spatio-temporal b-value variations, foreshock patterns, Coulomb stress transfer, geodetically detected aseismic slip or fault-based rupture forecasts. Regional and national models are more commonly constructed and can underpin national seismic hazard models and require testing at lower magnitudes to increase test data. We welcome contributions that construct and test probabilistic earthquake forecast models and algorithms from regional via national to global scales. Submissions may include hypothesis-generating research about what controls earthquake potential but should also develop plans for testing prospectively. We also seek submissions that build on vetted earthquake forecasts to construct seismic hazard and risk models, particularly at global scales.
Conveners
Maximilian Werner, University of Bristol (max.werner@bristol.ac.uk)
David Jackson, University of California, Los Angeles (djackson@g.ucla.edu)
Danijel Schorlemmer, GFZ German Research Centre for Geosciences (ds@gfz-potsdam.de)
Oral Presentations
| Participant Role | Details | Start Time | Minutes | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Submission | Two Global Ensemble Seismicity Models Obtained From the Combination of Interseismic Strain Rates and Earthquake-Catalog Data | 09:45 AM | 15 | View |
| Submission | GEAR1: A Tested High-Resolution Global Earthquake Rate Forecast | 10:00 AM | 15 | View |
| Submission | A Global Set of Subduction Zone Earthquake Scenarios Inferred From Geodetically Constrained Block Models | 10:15 AM | 15 | View |
| Submission | A Prospective Evaluation of a Publicly Released ETAS Aftershock Forecast During the 2020 SW Puerto Rico Sequence | 10:30 AM | 15 | View |
| Submission | Bayesian Etas: Towards Improved Earthquake Rate Models in the Pacific Northwest | 10:45 AM | 15 | View |
| Total: | 75 Minute(s) |
Constructing and Testing Regional and Global Earthquake Forecasts I
Description
Type: Oral
Date: 4/20/2021
Time: 9:45 AM to 11:00 AM Pacific