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GEAR1: A Tested High-Resolution Global Earthquake Rate Forecast

Session: Constructing and Testing Regional and Global Earthquake Forecasts I

Type: Oral

Date: 4/20/2021

Presentation Time: 10:00 AM Pacific

Description: 

In the Global Earthquake Activity Rate (GEAR) project we have constructed and are continuing to test a forecast model (rate of earthquake epicenters within location, magnitude, and time windows) at high resolution (0.1 by 0.1 degree), over the whole earth surface, for events of magnitude 5.8 and larger. Earthquake rates are inferred from a weighted combination of smoothed seismicity and tectonic deformation estimated from plate tectonic and geodetic data. Magnitudes are assumed to follow the Tapered Gutenberg-Righter distribution with corner magnitude values depending on regional tectonics. The first version (GEAR1) was published in 2015 and submitted to the Collaboratory for Study of Earthquake Predictability (CSEP) for testing against the GCMT catalog. GEAR1 was published in BSSA (Bird et al, 2015a) and tested prospectively by CSEP (Strader et al., 2018). The biggest outliers have lat-lon coordinates of (74.39,-92.43, Lahore, Pakistan), (86.92, 55.2, Arctic Ocean), and (-22.68, 25.16, Botswana). The highest estimated earthquake rate is at (-11.2, 165.1, in the Coral Sear southeast of the Solomon Islands). We are presently determining whether large earthquakes (m7+) can be forecast effectively from observed smaller ones (m5+); refining the model by incorporating regional earthquake catalogs and strain rate variations to evaluate potential improvements over the generic GEAR1 model, and testing the GEAR1 model against regional forecast models in California, Japan, and other areas where large-earthquake forecasts have been developed.

Presenting Author: David D. Jackson

Student Presenter: No

Authors