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Date: 4/19/2021

Session Time: 5:00 PM to 6:15 PM Pacific

New Insights Into the Preparatory Phase of Earthquakes From Tectonic, Field and Lab Experiments

Earthquake prediction and forecasting has been a great scientific challenge for many decades. When reviewing the historical developments around the world, we find that advances in our understanding of the predictability of earthquakes emerge from detailed analyses of new datasets and types of significant earthquakes as well as statistical research, model developments, lab and field experiments. Recently, new constraints have been placed on the earthquake preparation and nucleation phase from detailed observations of foreshocks, aseismic slip before subduction zone earthquakes, seismic slip nucleation in the lab and from statistical analyses of seismicity. Particularly strong constraints can emerge from experiments to catch large earthquakes in the act, such as the Parkfield, California, Earthquake Prediction Site of the U.S. Geological Survey and more recently the China Seismic Experimental Site (CSES) of the China Earthquake Administration. By using the seismically active Sichuan-Yunnan region as a natural observatory, CSES plans to foster an international and interdisciplinary cooperation on fundamental research in continental earthquakes.

In this session, we welcome contributions that illuminate or constrain the earthquake preparation phase from across the scales, from lab and field scales to global studies, and across the disciplines, including seismology, geodesy, geophysics and numerical modelling to experimental rock mechanics. We seek presentations that either develop new hypotheses (in exploratory research) or aim to test existing hypotheses (in confirmatory research). We also welcome contributions that leverage data science, including artificial intelligence, big data or cloud computing, to advance earthquake predictability research.

Joint SSC-SSA Session

Conveners

Zhigang Peng, Georgia Institute of Technology (zpeng@gatech.edu)
Yongxian Zhang, China Earthquake Administration (yxzhseis@sina.com)
Maximilian Werner, University of Bristol (max.werner@bristol.ac.uk)
Vladimir Kossobokov, Russian Academy of Sciences (volodya@mitp.ru)
John E. Ebel, Boston College (john.ebel.1@bc.edu)
Weijun Wang, China Earthquake Administration (wjwang@cea-ies.ac.cn)

Oral Presentations