Phenomenology and Physics of Potential Precursors of Earthquakes: Lessons Learnt from the China Seismic Experimental Site (CSES)
Session: New Insights Into the Preparatory Phase of Earthquakes From Tectonic, Field and Lab Experiments III
Type: Oral
Date: 4/19/2021
Presentation Time: 05:30 PM Pacific
Description:
China Seismic Experimental Site (CSES), announced to be established since 2018, is located within the territory of China in the range of 97.5°~105.5°E, 21°~32°N, with a total area of 780,000 km2. CSES is an extension and continuation of the Sino-US cooperative Western Yunnan Experimental Site for Earthquake Prediction (1980~) and the Sichuan-Yunnan National Experimental Site for Earthquake Monitoring and Prediction (2014~2018). It locates near the 'eastern Himalayan syntaxis', playing the role of a natural laboratory for earthquake science. Since 1965, for every decade, there had been on average 14 earthquakes with MS≥6.0, among which 3 with MS≥7.0, occurred in that region. Recent 2008 Wenchuan MS8.0, 2013 Lushan MS7.0 and Ludian MS6.5 earthquakes provide the investigation of potential precursors of earthquakes with opportunities of retrospective, and even prospective case studies. One of the important lessons learnt from previous earthquakes is that the association of a precursory anomaly with an earthquake seems complicated: The bigger the 'target’ earthquake, the bigger the spatial-temporal range of the precursory anomalies would be observed; Spatial distribution of the precursory anomalies depends on the seismo-tectonics of the 'target' earthquake; For large earthquakes, the evolution of the distribution of precursory anomalies shows the features which seems to be associated with the criticality of the earthquake preparatory phase. When both large and intermediate earthquakes are taken into consideration, such association problem becomes complicated; Clustering of earthquakes further contributes to such complexity; When noise and perturbation are considered, the problem is even more complicated; This problem is further tangled with the degeneration of observational environment.
Presenting Author: Zhongliang Wu
Student Presenter: No
Authors
Zhongliang Wu Presenting Author wuzhl@ucas.ac.cn China Earthquake Administration |
Yongxian Zhang Corresponding Author yxzhseis@sina.com China Earthquake Administration |
Xiaodong Zhang zxd@ief.ac.cn China Earthquake Administration |
Zhigang Shao shaozh0911@126.com China Earthquake Administration |
Jie Liu liujie@seis.ac.cn China Earthquake Networks Center |
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Phenomenology and Physics of Potential Precursors of Earthquakes: Lessons Learnt from the China Seismic Experimental Site (CSES)
Category
New Insights Into the Preparatory Phase of Earthquakes From Tectonic, Field and Lab Experiments