Room: 208A
Date: 4/19/2023
Session Time: 8:00 AM to 3:15 PM (local time)
Advances in Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis and Applications
Probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) was established a half-century ago and has since been used for seismic hazard, as the basis for building codes and seismic risk analysis. Significant improvements have been made in both seismic source and ground motion modeling. The modeling of epistemic uncertainty through logic-trees and other tools has allowed modelers to combine diverse ideas to produce more informative hazard estimates.
However, several challenges remain. Despite considerable progress made in the latest decade (e.g., UCERF3), combining different information in the seismic source characterization (e.g., historical seismicity, geodesy, tectonics and paleoseismology) remains problematic. Assumptions about, for example, magnitude scaling, earthquake rates on faults and Mmax are necessary due to incomplete data and lack of understanding and oversimplification of complex earthquake phenomena. On the ground-motion modeling side, an increasing number of hazard analyses incorporate regional and local properties through partially- and non-ergodic models and account for epistemic uncertainties with advanced approaches, such as the ones based on backbone models.
We invite presentations on the developing or updating of national or regional hazard models including site-specific hazard studies, as well as the application of them, including but not limited to their application in the building code community and insurance sectors. We also welcome studies on model evaluation such as impact on hazard results by different modeling assumptions. Please note that papers specifically on seismic source modeling should be submitted to “Opportunities and Challenges in Source Modeling for Seismic Hazard Analysis” session.
Conveners
Yufang Rong, FM Global (yufang.rong@fmglobal.com)
Matt Gerstenberger, GNS Science (m.gerstenberger@gns.cri.nz)
Marco Pagani, GEM Foundation (marco.pagani@globalquakemodel.org)
Sanjay Bora, GNS Science (s.bora@gns.cri.nz)
Harold Magistrale, FM Global (harold.magistrale@fmglobal.com)
Elliot Klein, FM Global (elliot.klein@fmglobal.com)
Richard Styron, GEM Foundation (richard.styron@globalquakemodel.org)
Oral Presentations
| Participant Role | Details | Start Time | Minutes | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Submission | WITHDRAWN 2020 National Seismic Hazard Model of Norway | 08:00 AM | 15 | View |
| Submission | The 2022 New Zealand National Seismic Hazard Model | 08:15 AM | 15 | View |
| Submission | A Comprehensive Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessment for Mexico | 08:30 AM | 15 | View |
| Submission | WITHDRAWN Probabilistic Analysis of Seismic Hazard in the Dominican Republic Considering Hybrid Models of Zones and Faults and Including the Local Effect on the Expected Motion. | 08:45 AM | 15 | View |
| Submission | The GEM Global Mosaic of Hazard Models: Improvements Since Its First Release and Challenges Ahead | 09:00 AM | 15 | View |
| Other Time | Break | 09:15 AM | 75 | |
| Submission | The 2022 Revision of National Seismic Hazard Model (NSHM) for New Zealand: Candidate Ground-Motion Models (GMMs) and Associated Hazard Sensitivities | 10:30 AM | 15 | View |
| Submission | Correlation of Non-Ergodic Path Effects for Intensity and Ground- Motion Data | 10:45 AM | 15 | View |
| Submission | Regionally Adaptable Ground-Motion Models for Subduction Seismicity in New Zealand | 11:00 AM | 15 | View |
| Submission | A Nonergodic Ground-Motion Model for Japan | 11:15 AM | 15 | View |
| Submission | WITHDRAWN Development of Non-ergodic Ground-Motions Model for Induced Seismicity by Considering Field-Specific Source and Site Effects | 11:30 AM | 15 | View |
| Other Time | 11:45 AM | 135 | ||
| Submission | Why Does Psha Overpredict Historically Observed Shaking Data? | 02:00 PM | 15 | View |
| Submission | The First National Earthquake Risk Model for Switzerland | 02:15 PM | 15 | View |
| Submission | Characterizing Seismic Risk Across Canada | 02:30 PM | 15 | View |
| Submission | Uses and Misuses of the Frequency-magnitude Distribution of Earthquakes | 02:45 PM | 15 | View |
| Submission | Does the Logic Tree Hide the Forest? Quantifying Uncertainties in Predicted Risk for Individual Model Settings in the Induced-Seismicity Hazard and Risk Analysis of the Groningen Gas Field | 03:00 PM | 15 | View |
| Total: | 435 Minute(s) |
Advances in Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis and Applications
Description