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A Comprehensive Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessment for Mexico

Description: 

Earthquakes larger than M_W7.0 have impacted the country of Mexico over the past century approximately once every 5-6 years, with six events having occurred since 2017. The Cocos and Rivera plates subduct eastward beneath the North America and Caribbean plates, creating a concentration of high hazard along the west coast seen on all existing seismic hazard maps (SHM). Despite frequent significant earthquakes, few peer-reviewed fully probabilistic seismic hazard analyses (PSHA) for the entire country exist. Risk assessment companies (e.g., Verisk Analytics) attempt to develop the most up to date view of risk using the most scientifically advanced, comprehensive, and accurate PSHA. Here, we present a comprehensive seismicity rate model that includes all significant seismic sources in Mexico including subduction zones, mapped active crustal faults, deep intra-slab earthquakes, and background seismicity to account for unknown faults. Our model incorporates a complete historical earthquake catalog homogenized to moment magnitude, an active fault database compiled from all regional and global data sources and publications, coupling information, and strain- and moment-rates from kinematic models of GPS data. We evaluate various ground motion models, including those from the NGA-Sub project, and select a suite of models appropriate for the various types of earthquakes in Mexico. Lastly, we integrate soil effects including a site amplification model for Mexico City based on published work. We present hazard results in terms of peak and spectral acceleration values (PGA & SA), and discuss the similarities and differences between our results and both peer- and non-peer-reviewed studies (e.g., GEM, CENAPRED, and national SHMs).

Session: Advances in Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis and Applications

Type: Oral

Date: 4/19/2023

Presentation Time: 08:30 AM (local time)

Presenting Author: Meredith L. Kraner

Student Presenter: No

Invited Presentation: No

Authors