Room: Ballroom
Date: 4/20/2023
Session Time: 8:00 AM to 5:45 PM (local time)
Advances in Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis and Applications
Probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) was established a half-century ago and has since been used for seismic hazard, as the basis for building codes and seismic risk analysis. Significant improvements have been made in both seismic source and ground motion modeling. The modeling of epistemic uncertainty through logic-trees and other tools has allowed modelers to combine diverse ideas to produce more informative hazard estimates.
However, several challenges remain. Despite considerable progress made in the latest decade (e.g., UCERF3), combining different information in the seismic source characterization (e.g., historical seismicity, geodesy, tectonics and paleoseismology) remains problematic. Assumptions about, for example, magnitude scaling, earthquake rates on faults and Mmax are necessary due to incomplete data and lack of understanding and oversimplification of complex earthquake phenomena. On the ground-motion modeling side, an increasing number of hazard analyses incorporate regional and local properties through partially- and non-ergodic models and account for epistemic uncertainties with advanced approaches, such as the ones based on backbone models.
We invite presentations on the developing or updating of national or regional hazard models including site-specific hazard studies, as well as the application of them, including but not limited to their application in the building code community and insurance sectors. We also welcome studies on model evaluation such as impact on hazard results by different modeling assumptions. Please note that papers specifically on seismic source modeling should be submitted to “Opportunities and Challenges in Source Modeling for Seismic Hazard Analysis” session.
Conveners
Yufang Rong, FM Global (yufang.rong@fmglobal.com)
Matt Gerstenberger, GNS Science (m.gerstenberger@gns.cri.nz)
Marco Pagani, GEM Foundation (marco.pagani@globalquakemodel.org)
Sanjay Bora, GNS Science (s.bora@gns.cri.nz)
Harold Magistrale, FM Global (harold.magistrale@fmglobal.com)
Elliot Klein, FM Global (elliot.klein@fmglobal.com)
Richard Styron, GEM Foundation (richard.styron@globalquakemodel.org)
Poster Presentations
| Participant Role | Details | Action |
|---|---|---|
| Submission | Seismic Vulnerability and Risk Assessment in Urban Areas in Dominican Republic. An Application to Santo Domingo Este. | View |
| Submission | Deterministic Seismic Hazard Scenarios in the City of Managua (Nicaragua) in the Framework of the Kuk Ahpan Project | View |
| Submission | Effects of the M6.1 Düzce (Türkiye) earthquake of November 23, 2022 and Seismic Hazard Implications | View |
| Submission | The Earthquake Fatality Load and Capacity by Country: Measures of Impact | View |
| Submission | A Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Model for Greenland | View |
| Submission | Implementation of Distance Conversion Equations in Seismic Hazard | View |
| Submission | Coordinated National Seismic Hazard Assessments for Tajikistan, Kyrgyzstan and Kazakhstan | View |
| Submission | Improving Lunar Seismic Source Models With L.R.O.C Data for Preliminary Lunar Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessments | View |
| Submission | Applicability evaluation of Ground Motion Models (GMMs) for Korean Peninsula | View |
| Submission | Evaluation of Regional High-Frequency Path Attenuation in Central Mexico Subjected to Subduction Earthquakes and the Potential Impacts on Hazard | View |
| Submission | Regional-Scale Seismic Fragility Assessment of Buildings in Istanbul Using Simulated Ground Motions | View |
| Submission | Methods for Unbiased Ground-Motion Intensity Conversion Equations and Implications for Hazard Map Assessment in California | View |
| Submission | Regional Ground Motion Model Evaluation for the Southern Eastern African Rift System | View |
| Submission | Geotechnical Field Observations From the 18 September 2022 Mw6.9 Chihshang, Taiwan Earthquake | View |
Advances in Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis and Applications [Poster]
Description