Improving Lunar Seismic Source Models With L.R.O.C Data for Preliminary Lunar Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessments
Description:
The future of lunar exploration is quickly progressing towards the presence of long-term installations,
both crewed and uncrewed. Probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) is used to inform the
development of seismic design criteria for terrestrial structures. We now look to leverage PSHA to
inform design criteria for future lunar bases.
Apollo-era seismometers, which were active from 1969 to 1977, provide essential information about
lunar seismicity, including 28 shallow moonquakes (SMQs) recorded during their operational period.
However, the limited dataset, the distribution of the instruments on the lunar surface, and the sensor
performances yield highly uncertain input criteria for a PSHA. In particular, localization of seismic
sources is difficult to ascertain. Imaging from the Lunar Reconnaissance Orbiter Camera (LROC) has
facilitated the detection and characterization of very young, surface-breaking thrust faults expressed by
lobate scarps. Activity on these young faults may be the source of SMQs. Global, high resolution (0.5
mpp) coverage and mapping of lobate scarps allow us to extrapolate the Magnitude-Frequency
Distribution (MFD) across the entire lunar surface and contextualize the absence of shallow
moonquakes detected on the far side of the Moon. In our investigation, we analyzed and incorporated
the previously-established spatial correlations between the lobate scarps imaged by LROC and the
detected shallow moonquakes.
Using the lobate scarps as a prior, we leverage Bayesian updating to fuse data from Apollo-era
seismometers and LROC imaging to develop a more robust spatial source model for lunar seismicity. We
provide insights into the significance of clusters of lobate scarps on magnitude distributions and outline
a method for using fault maps to help extrapolate limited and localized seismometer information across
the entire lunar surface for the development of a global MFD.
Session: Advances in Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis and Applications [Poster]
Type: Poster
Date: 4/20/2023
Presentation Time: 08:00 AM (local time)
Presenting Author: Constantinos Frantzis
Student Presenter: Yes
Invited Presentation:
Authors
Constantinos Frantzis Presenting Author Corresponding Author cfrantzi@umd.edu University of Maryland |
Michelle Bensi mbensi@umd.edu University of Maryland |
Maria Banks maria.e.banks@nasa.gov NASA Goddard Space Flight Center |
Lisa Schleicher lisasschleicher@gmail.com Research Geophysicist |
Nicholas Schmerr nschmerr@umd.edu University of Maryland |
Thomas Watters WattersT@si.edu National Air and Space Museum, Smithsonian Institution |
Renee Weber renee.c.weber@nasa.gov NASA Marshall Space Flight Center |
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Improving Lunar Seismic Source Models With L.R.O.C Data for Preliminary Lunar Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessments
Category
Advances in Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis and Applications