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Overview of the Final Earthquake Rupture Forecasts for the 2023 USGS NSHM

Description: 

On behalf of a very large group of co-authors, formal reviewers, and other contributors, this presentation provides a summary of the final time-independent Earthquake Rupture Forecasts (also known as seismic source characterizations) for the 2023 update of the USGS National Seismic Hazard Model. The main goals have been a more uniform application of methodologies across the country, a more complete representation of epistemic uncertainties, and establishing a basis for an eventual operational earthquake forecasting capability nationwide. Efforts also include a better representation of multi-fault ruptures and the ability to apply variable degrees of segmentation throughout each fault system (e.g., a wider range of models than applied previously in California). The presentation also summarizes updated geologic constraints, deformation models, statistical seismology components, efforts to operationalize various computer codes, hazard and risk sensitivity analyses (e.g., for logic tree refinement), and priorities for future improvements.

Session: USGS National Seismic Hazard Models: 2023 and Beyond

Type: Oral

Date: 4/18/2023

Presentation Time: 08:15 AM (local time)

Presenting Author: Edward H. Field

Student Presenter: No

Invited Presentation: 

Authors