Room: 208A
Date: 4/18/2023
Session Time: 8:00 AM to 3:15 PM (local time)
The USGS National Seismic Hazard Models (NSHMs) are a bridge between best-available earthquake science and public policy. By the end of 2023, the National Seismic Hazard Model Project (NSHMP) will publish a 50-State NSHM, focusing on updates to the conterminous U.S., Alaska and Hawaii. The Puerto Rico and U.S. Virgin Islands NSHM will be updated by the end of 2025 (see 2025 Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands National Seismic Hazard Model Update Technical Session), and updates to the Guam and Northern Mariana Islands and American Samoa and Neighboring South Pacific Islands NSHMs are tentatively scheduled to be completed by the end of 2026. Looking ahead to all future NSHM updates, we would like to consider new data, methods and models. For this session, we invite contributions on topics that will influence future seismic hazard models, including but not limited to: seismicity catalogs, declustering and smoothed seismicity models, geologic and geodetic deformation models, multi-fault ruptures, improved representation and quantification of epistemic uncertainty, new ground motion models (GMMs), including non-ergodic models, incorporation of physics-based (3D simulation) GMMs, basin effects, site response, directivity and time dependence. We also invite contributions on the use of NSHMs for scenario development, risk assessment for both buildings and infrastructure, and other applications of risk mitigation including those within the insurance industry. We are also interested in contributions that highlight potential impacts of hazard modeling uncertainties on downstream applications.
Conveners: Peter M. Powers, U.S. Geological Survey (pmpowers@usgs.gov)
Jason M. Altekruse, U.S. Geological Survey (jaltekruse@usgs.gov)
Sanaz Rezaeian, U.S. Geological Survey (srezaeian@usgs.gov)
Kishor S. Jaiswal, U.S. Geological Survey (kjaiswal@usgs.gov)
Mark D. Petersen, U.S. Geological Survey (mpetersen@usgs.gov)
Emel Seyhan, Risk Management Solutions (emel.seyhan@ rms.com)
Oral Presentations
| Participant Role | Details | Start Time | Minutes | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Submission | 2023 U.S. 50-State National Seismic Hazard Model | 08:00 AM | 15 | View |
| Submission | Overview of the Final Earthquake Rupture Forecasts for the 2023 USGS NSHM | 08:15 AM | 15 | View |
| Submission | Hazard Implications and Epistemic Uncertainties of the Updated Fault-System Inversion Model for the 2023 U.S. National Seismic Hazard Model | 08:30 AM | 15 | View |
| Submission | A Fault-Based Crustal Deformation Model With Deep Driven Dislocation Sources for the 2023 Update to the US National Seismic Hazard Model | 08:45 AM | 15 | View |
| Submission | The 2023 Update of the Alaska National Seismic Hazard Model | 09:00 AM | 15 | View |
| Other Time | Break | 09:15 AM | 45 | |
| Submission | Towards Regionalized Earthquake Source Models of Subduction Interface Earthquakes | 10:00 AM | 15 | View |
| Submission | Incorporating the M9 Project Simulations Into Non-Ergodic Site and Path Terms for the Cascadia Region Outside the Seattle Region | 10:15 AM | 15 | View |
| Submission | PSHA Study for the State of Hawai’i Based on Regionalized Seismic Source Characterization and Ground Motion Characterization Models | 10:30 AM | 15 | View |
| Submission | Update of NGA-East Database to Include Central and Eastern North America Events Since November 2011 | 10:45 AM | 15 | View |
| Submission | Development of a Site Response and Hazard Model for the U.S. Atlantic and Gulf Coastal Plains With a Geology-Based Shear Wave Velocity Model | 11:00 AM | 15 | View |
| Other Time | Break | 11:15 AM | 165 | |
| Submission | Bias of NGA-East GMMs and Site Amplification Models Relative to Supplemented Cena Ground Motion Database | 02:00 PM | 15 | View |
| Submission | Evaluating Bias of NGA-East GMMs and Site Factors for Ground Motions From Natural and Potentially Induced Earthquakes in Texas, Oklahoma, and Kansas | 02:15 PM | 15 | View |
| Submission | A Framework for Incorporating Epistemic Uncertainty in Site Effects in National Building Codes | 02:30 PM | 15 | View |
| Submission | An Update to FEMA P366: Estimating Annualized Earthquake Loss Estimates in the United States | 02:45 PM | 15 | View |
| Submission | Earthquake Hazard Prediction Software for South Carolina Considering Local Geology and Seismicity | 03:00 PM | 15 | View |
| Total: | 435 Minute(s) |
USGS National Seismic Hazard Models: 2023 and Beyond
Description