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Towards Regionalized Earthquake Source Models of Subduction Interface Earthquakes

Description: 

In Skarlatoudis et al. (2016; Sea16) we developed a set of global scaling relations using seismic moment (M₀) to predict physical source properties such as earthquake rupture area (S), total asperity area (S_a), slip (D), and fault width (W), for large subduction interface events. These relations significantly reduced the aleatory variability in predicting these source parameters. In this work, we present an augmented database of subduction interface events, including 79 additional events with published finite fault solutions that have been catalogued in the USGS Finite Fault database, the Online Database of Finite Fault Rupture Models (Mai and Thingbaijam, 2014), and the Next Generation Attenuation Subduction (NGA-Sub) database. These additional models are used to update the Sea16 set of global scaling relations, further improving the predictions of various source properties and minimizing uncertainties.

For the subduction zones with a sufficient number of earthquakes in our database, we also develop regionalized scaling relations and seek physical explanations for regional differences in subduction interface ground motions by examining correlations with physical parameters, as considered by Schellart and Rawlinson (2013), Heuret et al. (2011) and Schafer and Wenzel (2019). The regionalization terms are estimated as random effect terms in linear mixed models, and the use of Bayesian Analysis with appropriate distributions for the model terms is also evaluated.

Session: USGS National Seismic Hazard Models: 2023 and Beyond

Type: Oral

Date: 4/18/2023

Presentation Time: 10:00 AM (local time)

Presenting Author: Andreas Skarlatoudis

Student Presenter: No

Invited Presentation: 

Authors