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Sequence-Specific Updating of European ETAS Model: Application to the 2023 Türkiye-Syria Earthquake Sequence

Description: 

We analyse the spatio-temporal evolution of the aftershock sequence to the 2023 M7.8 Türkiye-Syria earthquake. We have recently calibrated a generic ETAS-based operational forecasting model for Europe, using a unified catalog and based on data between 1990 and 2015. Focusing on the earthquake sequence that started in February 2023 in Türkiye, we analyse how our model would have forecasted the temporal and spatial evolution of the sequence. We observed that the generic model clearly underforecasts the productivity of the sequence, and conclude that sequence-specific updating is required to achieve an acceptable fit between model and observations.

Here, we investigate the best way to visualize the results of aftershock forecasting and operational earthquake forecasting, and propose a new strategy for sequence-specific updating of model parameters to accurately describe the productivity and the spatial aftershock distribution, while leveraging on the parameters obtained from larger amounts of data within the European model. Our approach strives to avoid biases in the description of the temporal decay due to relying on short-term data. This is done by keeping certain model parameters fixed to the values inverted with our baseline model and calibrating the remaining parameters, using data of the ongoing sequence.

We assess the model’s consistency with observations by comparing the forecasts issued by the basic and modified models to the observed events. Preliminary results suggest that keeping the temporal kernel and the productivity parameter a fixed provides better forecasts than the baseline model, already when small amounts of data from the sequence are available. Having identified a promising strategy for sequence-specific model updating, we plan to test it systematicall on a large number of earthquake sequences.

Moreover, propose prototypes of communication products that should support professional, societal stakeholders (e.g., decision makers, first responders) to take informed decisions, for example during rescue investigations.

Session: February 2023 Mw 7.8 Earthquake Sequence in Turkey [Poster]

Type: Poster

Date: 4/19/2023

Presentation Time: 08:00 AM (local time)

Presenting Author: Leila Mizrahi

Student Presenter: No

Invited Presentation: 

Authors