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Seismic Activity and Aftershock Potential of the 6 February 2023 Mw7.7 and Mw7.6 Kahramanmaras Earthquake Sequence in Eastern Turkey

Description: 

The 2023 Kahramanmaras earthquake sequence in eastern Turkey began on February 6 and ruptured with a length of approximately 500 km in the deformation area of the Eastern Anatolian Fault Zone. The earthquake sequence started with a NE-SW oriented left-lateral shear and gained momentum about 9 hours later with another rupture in the E-W direction before continuing southwards. This type of rupture is similar to the pattern observed during the 17 August 1999 Kocaeli earthquakes and is formed by a strike-slip mechanism. The current seismicity in the deformation area has been highly active with small-to-moderate-sized aftershocks. A time-series analysis of the first 42 days of aftershocks (as of 20 March 2023 at 01:17:26 UTC) reveals that the high seismic activity observed in the first 21 days continued in the following days, with a significant decrease in the level of activity. However, the daily change in the new level is stable, indicating a high seismic energy potential still present in the region. The decreasing slope of the function characterizing the aftershock activity is low, indicating that the aftershock sequence is estimated to last for about 4.5 years using the completeness plane technique, recently proposed by the presenting author. The values of the parameters of the Modified Omori’s formula used for the estimation of the aftershock sequence potential, K, c, and p, are controversial due to the short time period considered. The aftershock data used in the analysis were downloaded from the Kandilli Observatory and Earthquake Research Institute, Boğaziçi University electronic earthquake catalog. We present an analysis of the seismic activity and aftershock potential of the 2023 Kahramanmaras earthquake sequence in eastern Turkey. The results suggest that the region still has a high seismic energy potential, and aftershock activity may persist for years to come. This study can contribute to the development of strategies to mitigate earthquake damage and loss.

Session: February 2023 Mw 7.8 Earthquake Sequence in Turkey [Poster]

Type: Poster

Date: 4/19/2023

Presentation Time: 08:00 AM (local time)

Presenting Author: Mehmet Utku

Student Presenter: No

Invited Presentation: 

Authors