← Back to Sessions

Earthquake Rate Modelling Tools to Explore Uncertainties in Fault Source Parameters The Case of the Alboran Sea

Description: 

The Alboran Sea accommodates part of the current NW-SE convergence between the African and Eurasian plates (4-5 mm/yr). Despite it is considered as a relatively low tectonic deformation region with diffuse seismicity, large earthquakes (I_EMS>IX) have occurred since historical times. One of the main issues for the characterization of the seismic hazard in the Alboran Sea, common to many low-deformation regions, lies in accurately constraining the seismic parameters that define fault activity and their behavior (i.e., slip rates, recurrence or multi-fault rupture capability). This issue is further aggravated by the fact that these faults are mostly located offshore, making their investigation more challenging. As a result, most faults in the Alboran Sea have poor slip and activity rate estimates, while their capability to interact and rupture in complex rupture patterns has not been explored yet. In this study, we compute several models of earthquake rupture rates for the Alboran Sea with the SHERIFS code and using a systematic parameter exploration tree to determine the parameters of each model. We base the exploration tree on the slip rate and multi-fault rupture scenarios, allowing us to investigate the epistemic uncertainty linked to these parameters. To check the feasibility of the computed earthquake rates of each model, we compare them with the observed seismicity rates in the region. As a result, this enables us to identify which parameter combinations best match the recorded seismicity, prioritizing those that perform better for the hazard assessment. In addition, these optimal values might be used as indicators for further studies focused on better constraining the fault parameters, as well as for preliminary fault-based seismic hazard assessments. By extension, the limitations of the modelling in terms of slip rate budget distribution and fault rupture scenarios can also be used to determine which areas should be prioritized for further research. We expect that the results of our work enhance discussion among researchers working in the area and motivate further investigations into fault dynamics.

Session: Learning Across Geological, Geophysical & Model-Derived Observations to Constrain Earthquake Behavior [Poster Session]

Type: Poster

Date: 5/1/2024

Presentation Time: 08:00 AM (local time)

Presenting Author: María José

Student Presenter: No

Invited Presentation: 

Authors