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WITHDRAWN Epistemic Uncertainty and Aleatoric Variability within Probabilistic Liquefaction Analysis

Description: 

WITHDRAWN In probabilistic seismic hazard analyses (PSHA), well established approaches have been developed for handling aleatory variability and epistemic uncertainty related to ground motion models and the associated predictive variables. However, extending these concepts to probabilistic liquefaction analyses (PLA) raises questions about how uncertainties are accounted for in the development of liquefaction triggering models. Specifically, in some of the more recently developed probabilistic triggering models, uncertainties in the estimated seismic demand and the measured in-situ test metrics associated with liquefaction and no-liquefaction case histories have and have not been considered, resulting in triggering models reflective of “total” and “model” uncertainties, respectively. How these triggering models are used within a PLA and the division between the aleatory variability and epistemic uncertainty related to the triggering model and associated predictive variables are explored herein.

Session: Regional-Scale Hazard, Risk and Loss Assessments [Poster Session]

Type: Poster

Date: 5/3/2024

Presentation Time: 08:00 AM (local time)

Presenting Author: Tat Shing

Student Presenter: Yes

Invited Presentation: 

Authors