← Back to Sessions

Towards Probabilistic Tsunami Risk Estimates Using Stochastic Earthquake Sources

Description: 

Tsunami hazard acalculation methodologies have undergone significant evolution in recent years with significant attention being placed on the probabilistic tsunami hazard assessment formalism. The next logical step is to extend the focus from purely hazard-centric perspectives to inclusive evaluations of risk and loss. The most substantial challenges of this shift are twofold: accurate estimation of likely seismic sources and defining the exposure of any given region, both demanding appropriate modeling of rupture dynamics and high-resolution hydrodynamics, as well as determining useful fragilities. Here we propose an approach that integrates stochastic rupture simulations, advanced inundation modeling, and exposure assessment. Through amalgamating these disparate elements into a cohesive framework, we aim to provide a comprehensive tool that not only quantifies the potential for seismic activity and consequent tsunami hazard, but also robustly predicts the associated risk and loss. We will present results from a prototype workflow utilizing this methodology, and discuss its potential applicability in probabilistic calculations for any subduction system globally. Furthermore, we will illustrate the scalability of this innovative model, asserting its feasibility for global implementation. This step forward offers a promising avenue for significant improvements in our understanding of tsunami hazards, risks, and their potential impacts on both local and global scales.

Session: Regional-Scale Hazard, Risk and Loss Assessments [Poster Session]

Type: Poster

Date: 5/3/2024

Presentation Time: 08:00 AM (local time)

Presenting Author: Diego

Student Presenter: No

Invited Presentation: 

Authors