Volcanic Eruption Forecasting Using Shannon Entropy: 2021 Tajogaite Eruption (Spain)
Description:
Recent eruptions such as the one that occurred in La Palma (Spain, 2021) have demonstrated how small eruptions disrupted the economy, environment, and human systems, proving how vulnerable we are to these phenomena. Despite technological advances, it remains unclear if and when melt will solidify at depth or ascend into shallower systems and lead to eruptions. Thus, one of the grand challenges of volcanology is to make accurate volcanic forecasts to reduce volcanic risk. Many volcanological observatories count on how many events are recorded to make a probabilistic forecast, therefore, they focused their efforts on automated event detectors and classifiers. Another approach to forecasting volcanic eruptions is to analyze geophysical data to detect changes or patterns that can be used as precursor elements of a possible volcanic eruption.
Previous work from Rey-Devesa et al., (2023a,b) has shown that pre-eruptive variations in Shannon Entropy are a confident short-term volcanic eruption forecasting tool. SE is a statistical quantifier introduced in the framework of Information Theory and indicates the level of randomness in a system. The range of possible values of SE is between 0 and 1; SE is 0 if all the available data belong to the same class, in this case, it is possible to predict the class of new data; the highest SE value is obtained when the probabilities of all the class is the same.
In this work, we study the evolution of SE before and during the 2021 Tajogaite eruption in La Palma (Canary Island, Spain) from January 2021 to December 2022. The results show that the SE drops several hours before the eruption starts and increases when the eruption ends. Hence, SE could be used as a complementary tool in seismic volcano monitoring, showing its successful behavior before eruptions, giving time enough to alert the population and prepare for the consequences of an imminent and well-predicted moment of the eruption.
Session: Multidisciplinary Approaches for Volcanic Eruption Forecasting - II
Type: Oral
Date: 5/2/2024
Presentation Time: 04:45 PM (local time)
Presenting Author: Janire
Student Presenter: No
Invited Presentation:
Authors
Pablo Rey-Devesa pablord@ugr.es University of Granada |
Joe Carthy joseph.carthy@ugr.es University of Granada |
Manuel Titos mmtitos@ugr.es University of Granada |
M. Carmen Benítez carmen@ugr.es University of Granada |
Luca D'Auria ldauria@iter.es Instituto Volcanológico de Canarias |
Jesús Ibáñez jibanez@ugr.es University of Granada |
Janire Prudencio Presenting Author Corresponding Author janire@ugr.es Universidad de Granada |
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Volcanic Eruption Forecasting Using Shannon Entropy: 2021 Tajogaite Eruption (Spain)
Category
Multidisciplinary Aproaches for Volcanic Eruption Forecasting