← Back to Sessions

Room: Tubughnenq’ 3

Date: 5/2/2024

Session Time: 4:30 PM to 5:45 PM (local time)

Detecting volcanic unrest and forecasting volcanic eruptions, how they will evolve and when they will finish is one of the main challenges in volcanology. The interaction of volcanic systems with their environment during an eruptive process affects many different physical and chemical parameters. Many of these parameters, called observables, are monitored in volcanic systems in near-real time, being the base of alert-level strategies and forecasting protocols. Exploring these observables involves complex data processing, time series analysis and the development of numerical models of volcanic processes, with the goal of improving our understanding of the interaction between subsurface processes and volcanic activity. 
 
Inferring conceptual and numerical models of how volcanoes work requires a multidisciplinary analysis integrating data and methodologies from different disciplines, including geology, seismology, remote sensing and geodesy; as well as physics or chemistry, signal processing and statistical approaches. At present, several promising results have been derived from this joint analysis, improving our knowledge of volcanic unrest and magma ascent, which helps eruption forecasting and decision-making. 
 
This session aims to encourage the multidisciplinary community working in volcanology to submit their most recent results on unrest detection and eruption forecasting. We welcome (but are not limited to) contributions from volcano statistics, event trees analysis, data assimilation techniques, the use of artificial intelligence and machine learning to study volcanic signals, analysis of time series in volcanology, study of the evolution of new seismic parameters/features, development of innovative analytical methods and probabilistic volcanic hazard assessment. We invite researchers to share their valuable work in this session, contributing to the collective knowledge and progress in the field of volcanic forecasting. 

Conveners:
Alberto Ardid, University of Canterbury (alberto.ardid@canterbury.ac.nz)
Francesca Bianco, Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (francesca.bianco@ingv.it)
Társilo Girona, Alaska Volcano Observatory, University of Alaska Fairbanks (tarsilo.girona@alaska.edu)
Janire Prudencio, Universidad de Granada (janire@ugr.es)

Oral Presentations