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Room: Key Ballroom 10

Date: 4/16/2025

Session Time: 4:30 PM to 5:45 PM (local time)

Predictability of Seismic and Aseismic Slip: From Basic Science to Operational Forecasts 

A central problem of earthquake seismology is time-dependent earthquake forecasting. We are currently unable to reliably predict damaging earthquakes --- or the lack thereof --- within relatively short and therefore actionable space and timeframes. It may be that the earthquake nucleation process is complex enough that such prediction is impractical. However, new pieces of the forecasting puzzle continue to accumulate from lab and field experiments, multi-disciplinary observations, theory, physical modeling, advanced computing and machine-learning.

This session welcomes approaches to evaluate constraints on short-timescale forecasting as well as opportunities for the predictability of seismic and aseismic fault slip, fracturing, and their associated processes, such as crustal deformation, aftershocks, fluid flow or geochemical alterations. If the old, central problem of earthquake prediction is too ill-conditioned, how do we integrate across disciplinary boundaries to make progress on more predictable variables and processes?

We welcome a broad range of contributions that provide new perspectives on the predictability of seismic and aseismic slip and associated phenomena. These may include new insights from: lab and field experiments, analyses of aseismic slip or low-frequency earthquakes and their interaction with fast earthquakes, models of fault slip, evaluations of seismicity forecasting models including machine learning models, enhanced earthquake catalogs, advanced computing and machine learning techniques, or integrated predictive modeling of a broad spectrum of phenomena beyond purely seismic slip.

Conveners 

Jessica Hawthorne, University of Oxford (jessica.hawthorne@earth.ox.ac.uk)
Maximilian J. Werner, University of Bristol (max.werner@bristol.ac.uk

Oral Presentations