Earthquake Predictability, Insight From Dynamical Models of Earthquake Sequences
Description:
The study of induced seismicity shows that spatial and temporal variations of seismicity rate can be predicted well based on the calculation of Coulomb stress changes, informed by reservoir operations and surface deformation measurements, and a nucleation process represented by rate and state friction. Forecasting the timing, location and magnitude of individual events is the next challenge. To investigate possible avenues in that direction, we analyzed the predictability of individual events in dynamical models of earthquake sequences based on rate and state friction. We start with a model designed to reproduce slow earthquakes, which have been shown to result from a chaotic system with deterministic predictability, albeit over a short duration. In such a system, predictability arises from self-organization resulting in spatial correlation of rate and state parameters, hence of stress. This understanding provides in principle an avenue for time-dependent probabilistic forecasting of individual events, although applicability to nature is far from warranted.
Session: Predictability of Seismic and Aseismic Slip: From Basic Science to Operational Forecasts - I
Type: Oral
Date: 4/16/2025
Presentation Time: 05:15 PM (local time)
Presenting Author: Jean-Philippe
Student Presenter: No
Invited Presentation: Yes
Poster Number:
Authors
Jean-Philippe Avouac Presenting Author Corresponding Author avouac@caltech.edu California Institute of Technology |
Hojjat Kaveh hkaveh@caltech.edu California Institute of Technology |
Rajani Shrestha rshresth@caltech.edu California Institute of Technology |
Andrew Stuart astuart@caltech.edu California Institute of Technology |
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Earthquake Predictability, Insight From Dynamical Models of Earthquake Sequences
Category
Predictability of Seismic and Aseismic Slip: From Basic Science to Operational Forecasts