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Modeling Synthetic Catalogues of Earthquake Ruptures in Complex Interacting Fault Systems: A Case Study in Central Apennines, Italy

Description: 

Seismology and paleoseismology are crucial for collecting data on earthquakes and assessing seismic hazards. However, earthquake catalogues are often too short and uncertain, especially in areas with low-to-moderate seismicity, making accurate seismic risk evaluation challenging. Physics-based earthquake simulators offer a solution by generating long, synthetic earthquake sequences.

This study uses MCQsim (Zielke & Mai, 2023) to create synthetic earthquake catalogues for Central Italy, a region with moderate seismic activity and an extensional tectonic regime. Data from the Fault2SHA database (Walker et al., 2021) help model key faults to produce earthquake sequences that realistically reflect the region's tectonics.

Initial results match known earthquake-scaling relationships, magnitude-frequency distributions, and fault slip rates. Further refinements will focus on adding fault details and refining depth characteristics to enhance simulation accuracy.

Part of the MSCA-DN TREAD project (https://tread-horizon.eu/), this work aims to improve probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) and overcome limitations of traditional earthquake catalogues, enabling better seismic hazard assessments.

Zielke O. and Mai M. (2023) – MCQsim: a multicycle earthquake simulator, Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, 113-3, 889-908.

Faure Walker, J., Boncio, P., Pace, B.et al.Fault2SHA Central Apennines database and structuring active fault data for seismic hazard assessment.Sci Data8, 87 (2021).

Session: Testing, Testing 1 2 3: Appropriate Evaluation of New Seismic Hazard and Risk Models - I

Type: Oral

Date: 4/15/2025

Presentation Time: 08:45 AM (local time)

Presenting Author: Bruno

Student Presenter: Yes

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