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Room: Key Ballroom 11

Date: 4/15/2025

Session Time: 8:00 AM to 9:15 AM (local time)

Testing, Testing 1 2 3: Appropriate Evaluation of New Seismic Hazard and Risk Models

Many models used in earthquake science have societal impact, whether directly such as through insurance premiums calculated on the basis of hazard maps, or indirectly, such as the fault rupture sets which underpin these maps. Frequently, such models are developed initially from a perspective of scientific curiosity rather than downstream application. This session seeks to explore the question of what constitutes appropriate testing and evaluation of models with potential life-safety impact, whether by design or in terms of their future potential. In particular, as observations of earthquakes have become more numerous, more detailed and more precise, the range of earthquake phenomena understood to be possible has continued to expand. In this context, how can we develop methods of evaluation which require models to be both consistent with our (limited) observations to date, and not overly constrained by observation bias? We invite contributions on all aspects of testing and evaluation of models with societal applications, and would particularly welcome speakers interested in these questions as applied to multi-fault, multi-cycle earthquake simulators. 

Conveners

Kirsty Bayliss, GEM Foundation, (kirsty.bayliss@globalquakemodel.org) 
Bill Fry, GNS Science, (b.fry@gns.cri.nz) 
Matthew Gerstenberger, GNS, (m.gerstenberger@gns.cri.nz) 
Andrew Nicol, University of Canterbury, (andy.nicol@canterbury.ac.nz) 
Bruno Pace, Gabriele d’Annunzio University Chieti-Pescara (bruno.pace@unich.it) 
Camilla Penney, University of Canterbury, (camilla.penney@canterbury.ac.nz)

Oral Presentations