Guidelines for the Evaluation Process of a NSHM: The Italian MPS19 Legacy
Description:
In numerous countries, the acceptance of a new National Seismic Hazard Model (NSHM) for risk reduction strategies typically follows thorough scrutiny and comparative analysis with previous models, focusing on scientific reliability and practical applicability for building codes. While these two criteria are both valid, they represent distinct concepts that are often conflated in scientific and public discourse. We recognize that the implementation of an NSHM in risk reduction strategies involves several non-scientific challenges; however, it is essential to emphasize that NSHM is fundamentally a scientific model, and its credibility hinges solely on its scientific reliability.
Inspired by the evaluation process of the most recent NSHM in Italy, here we delve into how to effectively assess the reliability of an NSHM and its limitations using available data, as well as the implications of comparing outcomes between new and previous models. Lastly, we offer recommendations to assist scientists in navigating the complex process of evaluating the scientific reliability of NSHMs and meaningfully comparing the results of different models.
Session: Testing, Testing 1 2 3: Appropriate Evaluation of New Seismic Hazard and Risk Models - I
Type: Oral
Date: 4/15/2025
Presentation Time: 09:00 AM (local time)
Presenting Author: Warner
Student Presenter: No
Invited Presentation: Yes
Poster Number:
Authors
Warner Marzocchi Presenting Author Corresponding Author warner.marzocchi@unina.it University of Naples Federico II |
Carlo Meletti carlo.meletti@ingv.it National Institute of Geophysics and Volcanology |
Vera D'Amico vera.damico@ingv.it National Institute of Geophysics and Volcanology |
Giovanni Lanzano giovanni.lanzano@ingv.it National Institute of Geophysics and Volcanology |
Lucia Luzi lucia.luzi@ingv.it National Institute of Geophysics and Volcanology |
Francesco Martinelli francesco.martinelli@ingv.it National Institute of Geophysics and Volcanology |
Bruno Pace bruno.pace@unich.it Gabriele d'Annunzio University |
Andrea Rovida andrea.rovida@ingv.it National Institute of Geophysics and Volcanology |
Matteo Taroni matteo.taroni@ingv.it National Institute of Geophysics and Volcanology |
Francesco Visini francesco.visini@ingv.it National Institute of Geophysics and Volcanology, Pisa, , Italy |
Guidelines for the Evaluation Process of a NSHM: The Italian MPS19 Legacy
Category
Testing, Testing 1 2 3: Appropriate Evaluation of New Seismic Hazard and Risk Models