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Testing and Evaluation of Earthquake Simulations for Natural Hazards and Risk Modelling

Description: 

Numerical earthquake simulators are being widely developed, primarily to address questions of geophysical interest. At the same time, these models have the potential to supplement established hazard models. Before these new methods are adopted for hazard assessment and life-safety decisions, their usefulness and appropriateness for such decisions needs to be critically evaluated. In this talk we examine a number of key questions that must be addressed as part of this critical evaluation. These questions include: i) what are the minimum requirements for testing and evaluation before earthquake simulations are included in hazard analysis? ii) As a community, how do we reach agreement about the testing and evaluation required before earthquake simulations are included in hazard models? And iii) given the incompleteness and short duration of existing earthquake data, can earthquake simulations improve constraints on uncertainties and/or estimates of time-dependent hazard? Answering these questions will require input from a diverse cross-disciplinary group of researchers and end-user stakeholders. When assessing the utility of earthquake simulators, we must consider statistical rigour of testing, informativeness of the chosen test and value added by the new modelling. At a minimum, models should be consistent with, and explain, existing observations, while allowing for physically credible events which have not (yet) been observed. The level of testing and evaluation will vary dependent on the purpose of hazard models and the tolerance for uncertainty. This talk is designed to promote discussion and collaboration across the hazard community.

Session: Testing, Testing 1 2 3: Appropriate Evaluation of New Seismic Hazard and Risk Models - I

Type: Oral

Date: 4/15/2025

Presentation Time: 08:00 AM (local time)

Presenting Author: Andy

Student Presenter: No

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